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The [[Anglican Diocese of Jerusalem]], which manages the hospital, reported 200 people killed. US intelligence agencies assessed a death toll between 100 and 300. A report by [[Human Rights Watch]] also questioned the Health Ministry's casualty figures.<ref name="HRW">{{Cite report |url=https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/11/26/gaza-findings-october-17-al-ahli-hospital-explosion |title=Gaza: Findings on October 17 al-Ahli Hospital Explosion - Evidence Points to Misfired Rocket but Full Investigation Needed |publisher=Human Rights Watch |date=26 November 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231201021546/https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/11/26/gaza-findings-october-17-al-ahli-hospital-explosion |archive-date=1 December 2023 |url-status=live}}</ref> The cause of the explosion is contested. Israel, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Canada said that their intelligence sources indicate the cause of the explosion was a failed [[Palestinian rocket attacks on Israel|rocket launch]] from within Gaza by the [[Palestinian Islamic Jihad]] (PIJ). Hamas and PIJ stated the explosion was caused by an Israeli airstrike.
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}}</ref> In late November 2023, the Human Rights Watch also stated that the available evidence made an Israeli airstrike "highly unlikely".<ref name=HRW />
[[Channel 4 News]] investigations contested Israeli claims of a misfired Hamas rocket being responsible for the blast.<ref name="Thomson2">{{cite web |last=Thomson |first=Alex |date=18 October 2023 |title=Who was behind the Gaza hospital blast – visual investigation |url=https://www.channel4.com/news/who-was-behind-the-gaza-hospital-blast-visual-investigation |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231018222329/https://www.channel4.com/news/who-was-behind-the-gaza-hospital-blast-visual-investigation |archive-date=18 October 2023 |access-date=18 October 2023 |work=[[Channel 4]] |quote=Israel claims the Islamic Jihad failed missile was fired from here, a cemetery very close to the hospital, but look again at the video of the event, the trajectory of the missile doesn't line up with that location... Confusingly the Israeli presentation also says the missile was fired from a location down on the southwest, it can't be both.}}</ref><ref name=":53">{{Cite web |title=Hamas says it has released two American hostages being held in Gaza |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeP9vFrTEzI&t=316s |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231020222128/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeP9vFrTEzI |archive-date=20 October 2023 |access-date=20 October 2023 |via=YouTube}}</ref> ''[[The New York Times]]'', [[Bloomberg News]], [[BBC News]], and ''[[El País]]'' cited [[Forensic Architecture]] disputing on October 20 Israel's account that the blast was caused by a rocket from Gaza, concluding instead that it was the result of a missile fired from the direction of Israel.<ref>{{cite web |author=The New York Times |date=23 October 2023 |title=Israel War Live Updates: Hamas Releases 2 More Hostages as Gaza Death Toll Rises |url=https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/23/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news#israel-gaza-hospital-evidence |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231023212503/https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/23/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news#israel-gaza-hospital-evidence |archive-date=23 October 2023 |access-date=23 October 2023 |website=The New York Times}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |date=21 October 2023 |title=Israel Latest: Gaza Air Strikes to Intensify Before 'Next Stage' |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-21/israel-latest-leaders-to-meet-in-cairo-after-hostage-release |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231021125419/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-21/israel-latest-leaders-to-meet-in-cairo-after-hostage-release |archive-date=21 October 2023 |access-date=23 October 2023 |newspaper=Bloomberg |ref={{sfnref|Bloomberg.com|2023}} |agency=Bloomberg}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Gutiérrez |first=Óscar |date=24 October 2023 |title=A reconstruction of the Al Ahli hospital massacre in Gaza that set the Islamic world on fire |url=https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-10-24/a-reconstruction-of-the-al-ahli-hospital-massacre-in-gaza-that-set-the-islamic-world-on-fire.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231024235656/https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-10-24/a-reconstruction-of-the-al-ahli-hospital-massacre-in-gaza-that-set-the-islamic-world-on-fire.html |archive-date=24 October 2023 |work=[[El País]]}}</ref><ref name="BBCNewAnalysis2">{{Cite news |last1=Horton |first1=Jake |last2=Cheetham |first2=Joshua |last3=Sardarizadeh |first3=Shayan |date=26 October 2023 |title=Gaza hospital blast: What does new analysis tell us? |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67216929 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231026192242/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67216929 |archive-date=26 October 2023 |work=[[BBC News]]}}</ref> In its February 2024 investigation, Forensic Architecture noted that multiple news outlets erroneously cited the IDF’s claim that it was a Palestinian rocket that struck al-Ahli hospital, noting that while what happened at al-Ahli remains inconclusive, the Israeli military launched an aggressive disinformation campaign in its aftermath, and that it "has yet to provide any conclusive visual evidence to support the claim that the source of the deadly blast at al-Ahli hospital was a Hamas or PIJ rocket."<ref name="FA22">{{cite web |date=15 February 2024 |title=Israeli disinformation: Al-Ahli Hospital |url=https://forensic-architecture.org/investigation/israeli-disinformation-al-ahli-hospital |accessdate=12 April 2024 |work=Forensic Architecture}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Félix |first=Doreen St |date=2024-07-15 |title=How Lawrence Abu Hamdan Hears the World |url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/07/22/how-lawrence-abu-hamdan-hears-the-world |access-date=2024-09-11 |work=The New Yorker |language=en-US |issn=0028-792X}}</ref> According to ''[[The New Yorker]]'', the IDF "had fostered an environment of uncertainty by putting out misinformation about a misfired Palestinian rocket."<ref name=":13">{{cite web |last1=St. Felix |first1=Doreen |title=HOW LAWRENCE ABU HAMDAN HEARS THE WORLD |url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/07/22/how-lawrence-abu-hamdan-hears-the-world |access-date=11 September 2024 |publisher=The New Yorker}}</ref>
== Background ==
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=== Origin and trajectory of munition ===
On 18 October, the day after the blast, [[Channel 4 News]] reported that the trajectory of the missile that appeared on Al Jazeera Live is inconsistent with the missile launching location stated by the IDF and noted a contradiction in IDF statements on the location of the launching site of the alleged Palestinian missile that hit the hospital in their presentation.<ref name="Thomson" /> On 20 October, Channel 4 News also used [[Doppler effect]] sound analysis of the strike and visual analysis of the crater created by the strike. Both analyses indicated that the object that caused the blast would have come from points "east of the hospital not west as the IDF claimed." Channel 4 also reported that Hamas and Islamic Jihad had not backed their claims of Israeli origin with evidence and that "Islamic Jihad claimed to have a missile fragment but have not produced it".<ref name=":5" /> ''The New York Times'', Bloomberg News, Al Jazeera,
The [[Associated Press]] (AP) concluded on 20 October, from analyzing "more than a dozen videos from the moments before, during and after the hospital explosion, as well as satellite imagery and photos", that a rocket was "fired from within Palestinian territory, and that the hospital explosion was most likely caused when part of that rocket crashed to the ground", while noting the unavailability of definitive proof. AP reported that its preliminary conclusion was supported by experts in open-source intelligence, geolocation, and rocketry, "who all agreed the most likely scenario was a rocket from within Gaza that veered off and came apart seconds before the explosion."<ref name=":7" />
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In its February 2024 investigation, Forensic Architecture noted that "Multiple news outlets cited Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari’s claim that it was a Palestinian rocket that struck al-Ahli hospital with ‘most of this damage… done due to the propellant, not just the warhead’. Similar claims were made by Human Rights Watch, the Washington Post, the BBC, and AP." However, their analysis revealed that this was not possible, for it "suggests that all seventeen visible rockets in the salvo the Israeli military claimed was responsible had finished burning their fuel mid-flight, meaning that by Hagari’s own logic they could not have caused the damage to al-Ahli."<ref name="FA2" />
Forensic Architecture went on to note that while what happened at al-Ahli remains inconclusive, the Israeli military launched an aggressive disinformation campaign in its aftermath, and that it "has yet to provide any conclusive visual evidence to support the claim that the source of the deadly blast at al-Ahli hospital was a Hamas or PIJ rocket."<ref name="FA2" />
''[[The New Yorker]]'' reported that the IDF "had fostered an environment of uncertainty by putting out misinformation about a misfired Palestinian rocket."<ref name=":13" />
=== Iron Dome ===
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