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2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico

(Redirected from United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2016)

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout62.36% (of eligible voters)[1]
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Home state New York New York New Mexico
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence Bill Weld
Electoral vote 5 0 0
Popular vote 385,234 319,667 74,541
Percentage 48.26% 40.04% 9.34%
New Mexico 2016
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county

Clinton won the state of New Mexico with a plurality, by a margin of 8.2 percentage points. The state had long been considered leaning Democratic, or a state Clinton would win, due to its large population of Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson achieved 9% in his home state, his best performance of any state, and the Libertarian Party's best performance in any single state since Ed Clark received 11.66% of the vote in Alaska in 1980.[3] Johnson's result was also the best result for a third party or independent candidate in New Mexico since Ross Perot's campaign in 1992.

This is the third time since 1912, when New Mexico attained statehood, that the state voted for a candidate who did not win the Electoral College, the other instances being 1976 and 2000. However, in this election and in 2000, the state did vote for the winner of the popular vote. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Los Alamos County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, as well as the first to do so without carrying Sandoval County since Richard Nixon in 1968.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2016 New Mexico Democratic primary

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primary ballot:

New Mexico Democratic primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 111,334 51.53% 18 9 27
Bernie Sanders 104,741 48.47% 16 0 16
Uncommitted — 0 0 0
Total 216,075 100% 34 9 43
Source: The Green Papers, New Mexico State Board of Elections,
New Mexico Democratic Delegates Allocation

Republican primary

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Republican primary results by county:
  Donald Trump
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Donald Trump, the only candidate with an active campaign, won every delegate from New Mexico.

New Mexico Republican primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 73,908 70.64% 24 0 24
Ted Cruz (withdrawn) 13,925 13.31% 0 0 0
John Kasich (withdrawn) 7,925 7.57% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 3,830 3.66% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,531 3.37% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,508 1.44% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 104,627 100.00% 24 0 24
Source: The Green Papers

General election

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Polling

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See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § New Mexico

Albuquerque Journal October 2, 2016[4]

  • Clinton 35%
  • Trump 31%
  • Johnson 24%
  • Stein 2%

Albuquerque Journal November 5, 2016[5]

  • Clinton 45%
  • Trump 40%
  • Johnson 11%
  • Stein 3%

Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted. Her margin of victory varied from 2 points to 13 points. The last poll showed Clinton ahead of Trump 46% to 44%, while the RealClearPolitics average of the last three had Clinton leading Trump 45.3% to 40.3% on the day of the election, with Gary Johnson at 9.3% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2.3%.[6] Johnson's highest level of support was 25% in a Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll in early September.[7]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[8] Safe D November 6, 2016
CNN[9] Safe D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[10] Likely D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[11] Lean D November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[12] Safe D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Likely D November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[14] Tossup November 8, 2016
Fox News[15] Lean D November 7, 2016

Results

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2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico[16]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
385,234 48.26% −4.73
Republican
319,667 40.04% −2.80
Libertarian
74,541 9.34% +5.79
Green
9,879 1.24% +0.90
Better for America
5,825 0.73% N/A
Constitution
1,514 0.19% +0.06
Socialism and Liberation
1,184 0.15% N/A
American Delta
475 0.06% N/A
Total votes 798,319 100.00%
Democratic win

By county

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County Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Gary Johnson
Libertarian 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # %
Bernalillo 143,417 52.22% 94,698 34.48% 29,682 10.81% 6,865 2.50% 48,719 17.74% 274,662
Catron 427 20.84% 1,464 71.45% 111 5.42% 47 2.29% -1,037 -50.61% 2,049
Chaves 5,534 27.30% 12,872 63.50% 1,609 7.94% 256 1.26% -7,338 -36.20% 20,271
Cibola 3,741 46.40% 3,195 39.63% 970 12.03% 157 1.95% 546 6.77% 8,063
Colfax 2,129 39.93% 2,585 48.48% 527 9.88% 91 1.71% -456 -8.55% 5,332
Curry 3,121 23.34% 9,035 67.58% 973 7.28% 241 1.80% -5,914 -44.24% 13,370
De Baca 193 21.21% 620 68.13% 89 9.78% 8 0.88% -427 -46.92% 910
Dona Ana 37,947 53.71% 25,374 35.92% 5,471 7.74% 1,856 2.63% 12,573 17.79% 70,648
Eddy 5,033 25.59% 13,147 66.85% 1,275 6.48% 212 1.08% -8,114 -41.26% 19,667
Grant 6,276 48.99% 5,288 41.28% 899 7.02% 348 2.72% 988 7.71% 12,811
Guadalupe 970 53.09% 595 32.57% 238 13.03% 24 1.31% 375 20.52% 1,827
Harding 156 29.60% 311 59.01% 55 10.44% 5 0.95% -155 -29.41% 527
Hidalgo 784 41.88% 910 48.61% 137 7.32% 41 2.19% -126 -6.73% 1,872
Lea 3,930 22.19% 12,495 70.55% 1,098 6.20% 189 1.07% -8,565 -48.36% 17,712
Lincoln 2,331 26.19% 5,896 66.23% 560 6.29% 115 1.29% -3,565 -40.04% 8,902
Los Alamos 5,562 51.10% 3,359 30.86% 1,512 13.89% 452 4.15% 2,203 20.24% 10,885
Luna 3,195 43.80% 3,478 47.68% 481 6.59% 141 1.93% -283 -3.88% 7,295
McKinley 13,576 62.55% 5,104 23.52% 2,412 11.11% 611 2.82% 8,472 39.03% 21,703
Mora 1,536 62.93% 665 27.24% 194 7.95% 46 1.88% 871 35.69% 2,441
Otero 6,124 30.53% 11,887 59.26% 1,613 8.04% 436 2.17% -5,763 -28.73% 20,060
Quay 1,017 28.47% 2,212 61.93% 299 8.37% 44 1.23% -1,195 -33.46% 3,572
Rio Arriba 9,592 64.47% 3,599 24.19% 1,425 9.58% 262 1.76% 5,993 40.28% 14,878
Roosevelt 1,454 24.44% 3,884 65.28% 482 8.10% 130 2.18% -2,430 -40.84% 5,950
San Juan 12,865 27.90% 27,946 60.61% 4,200 9.11% 1099 2.38% -15,081 -32.71% 46,110
San Miguel 7,285 67.76% 2,313 21.51% 915 8.61% 238 2.21% 4,972 46.25% 10,751
Sandoval 27,707 44.91% 25,905 41.99% 6,657 10.79% 1,421 2.30% 1,802 2.92% 61,690
Santa Fe 50,793 71.10% 14,332 20.06% 4,362 6.11% 1,947 2.73% 36,461 51.04% 71,434
Sierra 1,612 31.11% 3,010 58.10% 442 8.53% 117 2.26% -1,398 -26.99% 5,181
Socorro 3,313 48.24% 2,616 38.09% 802 11.68% 137 1.99% 697 10.15% 6,868
Taos 10,668 69.91% 2,727 17.87% 1,179 7.73% 686 4.50% 7,941 52.04% 15,260
Torrance 1,785 28.23% 3,714 58.73% 692 10.94% 133 2.10% -1,929 -30.50% 6,324
Union 320 18.80% 1,216 71.45% 134 7.87% 32 1.88% -896 -52.65% 1,702
Valencia 10,841 39.29% 13,215 47.89% 3,046 11.04% 490 1.78% -2,374 -8.60% 27,592
Total 385,234 48.26% 319,667 40.04% 74,541 9.34% 18,877 2.36% 65,567 8.22% 798,319
 
 
 
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[17]

By congressional district

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Clinton won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[18]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 35% 52% Michelle Lujan Grisham
2nd 50% 40% Steve Pearce
3rd 37% 52% Ben Ray Luján

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Official Results - General Election - November 8, 2016". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved November 4, 2020.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  3. ^ "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  4. ^ Coleman, Michael (October 2, 2016). "Clinton, Trump in tight race in New Mexico". Albuquerque Journal.
  5. ^ Coleman, Michael (November 5, 2016). "Journal Poll: Clinton still ahead in NM". Albuquerque Journal.
  6. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Mexico: Trump vs. Clinton".
  7. ^ "New poll shows how Trump-Clinton matchup is redrawing the electoral map". Washington Post. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
  8. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  9. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  10. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  11. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  12. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  13. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  14. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  15. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  16. ^ New Mexico Secretary of State (November 25, 2016). "2016 General Election Official Results – Federal". Retrieved November 14, 2021.
  17. ^ Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  18. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
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