2028 United States presidential election
 | |||||||
| |||||||
538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||
 2028 electoral map, based on 2020 census | |||||||
| |||||||
The 2028 United States presidential election will be the 61st quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 7, 2028.[1] Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Republican president-elect Donald Trump, elected in 2016 and 2024, is ineligible to seek re-election to a third term due to the term limits established by the Twenty-second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.[2]
After winning the 2016 presidential election and losing the 2020 presidential election, Trump launched a campaign for a second non-consecutive term, securing the Republican nomination and selecting U.S. Senator JD Vance as his running mate. Trump would go on to win the 2024 presidential election against incumbent Democratic vice president Kamala Harris and secure a second, non-consecutive term in office. His term is set to expire at noon on January 20, 2029, when the winners of the 2028 election will be inaugurated as the 48th president and the 51st vice president of the United States.
JD Vance, the vice president-elect of the United States, is currently considered a frontrunner for the Republican nomination for president, although Florida governor Ron DeSantis (who ran for the nomination in 2024) is seen as a potential contender. On the Democratic side, outgoing U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (who ran for the nomination in 2020), and governors Gavin Newsom (California), Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania), and Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) are considered potential contenders for the presidential nomination.
This presidential election will take place alongside three major elections: the U.S. Senate elections for 34 seats, the U.S. House elections for all 435 seats, and gubernatorial elections in 11 states and two territories.
Background
Eligibility
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years of age, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years.[3] The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice.[4]
Procedure
Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections or caucuses that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention.[5] Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention. If no candidate wins a majority of their party's delegates' votes, or if like the 2024 election, a party's presumptive nominee drops out of the race between the primaries and the convention, a brokered convention may be held: the delegates are then "released" and are free to switch their allegiance to a different candidate.[6] The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[7] In recent times, election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny. Many officials in different states have sought additional funding to hire more personnel, improve security, and lengthen training.[8]
Electoral map
 | This section needs additional citations for verification. (November 2024) |
Swing states
Most U.S. states are not highly competitive in presidential elections, often voting consistently for the same party due to longstanding demographic differences. In the Electoral College, this results in major-party candidates primarily focusing their campaigns on swing states, which can "swing" between parties from election to election. These states are critical for a presidential candidate's path to victory. In 2028 the expected swing states included the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, as well as the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina,[9] all of which were narrowly won by Trump in 2024.[citation needed]
Red states
Red states, also known as the Red Sea, are states that consistently vote Republican at the national level. The Red Sea has rarely been broken, as these states almost never swing. The last significant breach of the Red Sea occurred in the 1992 United States presidential election. Formerly considered swing states, Florida, Iowa and Ohio voted for Donald Trump in all three of his elections, with increasing margins that suggest they are no longer swing states.[10][11][12]
Blue states
Blue states are states that consistently vote Democratic at the national level. The current blue states include the so-called blue wall excepting Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan;[13] as well as Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, formerly swing states that became reliably blue in recent years.[14] Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, due to its recent record of voting Democratic even during Republican national wins, is also sometimes considered blue.[15]
Republican Party
Potential candidates
Individuals listed below have been mentioned as potential 2028 presidential candidates in at least two reliable media sources in the last six months.
.jpg)
.jpg)
Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis has served as the governor of Florida since 2019. DeSantis was established as a formidable opponent to incumbent nominee Donald Trump.[16] The New York Times journalist Maggie Haberman's book Confidence Man (2022) states Fox News executive Rupert Murdoch was willing to "throw [Trump] over" following his loss in the 2020 presidential election;[17] Fox News began portraying DeSantis in a positive light.[18] In May 2023, DeSantis announced his campaign in the 2024 presidential election, but delayed his announcement until the conclusion of the Florida legislative session, providing Trump with several months to insult DeSantis through sexual insinuations and claims of social ineptitude. Trump was indicted in Manhattan for his involvement in a scandal with pornographic film actress Stormy Daniels.[19] The DeSantis campaign faltered under financial difficulties with its political action committee Never Back Down and ridicule from supporters of Trump. In January 2024, following the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, DeSantis announced he would end his campaign.[20] DeSantis has demonstrated a potential for being a candidate in the 2028 presidential primaries, stating that Trump voters in Iowa told him that they would vote for him in 2028.[21] DeSantis appeared in a debate with California governor Gavin Newsom in November 2023, in what was viewed by NBC News as a precursor to a 2028 presidential bid.[22]
JD Vance
JD Vance has served as a senator of Ohio since 2021 and the vice president-elect. Vance is the frontrunner in the election, according to The New York Times's Nate Cohn,[23] and the "MAGA heir-apparent", according to USA Today[24] and The Columbus Dispatch.[25] The Hill stated that Vance's debate performance against Minnesota governor Tim Walz in October 2024 improved his status as a presidential contender.[26]
Democratic Party
Potential candidates
Individuals listed below have been mentioned as potential 2028 presidential candidates in at least two reliable media sources in the last six months.
.jpg)
.jpg)
_(Whitmer1).jpg)
Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris has served as the vice president of the United States since 2021 and ran for president in the 2024 election, but lost to Donald Trump.[27] Harris, who has the largest donor network in the Democratic Party, could run as president in 2028, according to The New York Times[27] and Politico,[28] though her loss could serve as a disadvantage.[27] According to USA Today, Harris intended to run in 2028 before president Joe Biden announced that he would not run for re-election and endorsed Harris.[29]
Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom has served as the governor of California since 2019. Newsom has been viewed as a contender for the 2028 presidential election by Politico[28] and The Washington Post after he garnered national attention by December 2023[30] and he was seen as a potential replacement for Biden after his withdrawal from the 2024 election by The New York Times.[31] According to The New York Times, Newsom was considering a bid for the presidency by September 2023.[32] In November, he appeared in a debate with Florida governor Ron DeSantis, in an event that was viewed as a precursor to a presidential bid by NBC News.[22] According to Axios, Newsom and J. B. Pritzker donated to Charleston, South Carolina, mayoral candidate Clay Middleton, signaling a presidential ambition.[33]
Josh Shapiro
Josh Shapiro has served as the governor of Pennsylvania since 2023. Shapiro has been seen as a critical figure in Pennsylvania by Democratic strategists and officials, according to Politico,[28] as a politician who could garner votes from white working-class voters, according to CNN.[34] He was said to be a front-runner in the primary by The Philadelphia Inquirer.[35] According to The New York Times, Shapiro was seen as a potential replacement for Biden.[31]
J. B. Pritzker
J. B. Pritzker has served as the governor of Illinois since 2019. Pritzker has privately discussed running in 2028, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.[36] With Newsom, he donated to Middleton.[33]
Gretchen Whitmer
Gretchen Whitmer has served as the governor of Michigan since 2019. Whitmer has been discussed as a contender in 2028, though she distanced herself from speculation in an interview with Lulu Garcia-Navarro of The New York Times Magazine in June 2024.[37] She disavowed a movement to replace Biden.[38]
Opinion polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Tucker Carlson |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
JD Vance |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 United States presidential election held. | ||||||||
| Echelon Insights | July 19–21, 2024 | 982 (RV) | – | 14% | 9% | 10% | 25% | 16%[b] |
| Echelon Insights | January 16–18, 2024 | 832 (RV) | 6% | 27% | 19% | 18% | 1% | 29%[c] |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Pete Buttigieg |
Kamala Harris |
Gavin Newsom |
Other/ Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 United States presidential election held. | ||||||||
| Morning Consult/Politico | May 28–29, 2024 | 3,997 (RV) | 10% | 21% | 10% | 11%[d] | ||
| Echelon Insights | January 16–18, 2024 | 499 (RV) | 13% | 33% | 11% | 43%[e] | ||
Notes
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Ted Cruz with 4%; Sarah Huckabee Sanders with 3%; Josh Hawley, Marco Rubio, & Tim Scott with 2%; Katie Britt, Byron Donalds, & Glenn Youngkin with 1%; Undecided with 21%
- ^ Greg Abbott with 3%; Kari Lake & Glenn Youngkin with 2%; Tom Cotton, Byron Donalds, Josh Hawley, Brian Kemp, & Elise Stefanik with 1%; Katie Britt with 0%; Undecided with 17%
- ^ Mark Kelly & Gretchen Whitmer with 4%; Josh Shapiro with 3%; "Don't know/No opinion" with 41% & "Someone else" with 7%
- ^ J.B. Pritzker & Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; John Fetterman, Josh Shapiro, & Raphael Warnock with 2%; Andy Beshear & Wes Moore with 1%; Undecided with 29%
References
Citations
- ^ "Election Planning Calendar" (PDF). Essex-Virginia.org. Essex County, Virginia. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 7, 2016. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
- ^ Jones, Erin; Loe, Megan (November 6, 2024). "No, Donald Trump cannot run for president again in 2028". KGW. Archived from the original on November 8, 2024.
- ^ "The 2nd Article of the U.S. Constitution". National Constitution Center – constitutioncenter.org. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ "The 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution". National Constitution Center – constitutioncenter.org. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ "Expert explainer: How primaries work in the U.S. presidential election". Western News. January 15, 2024. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ "National conventions | USAGov". www.usa.gov. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ "US Election guide: how does the election work?". The Daily Telegraph. November 6, 2012. Archived from the original on November 10, 2015. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
- ^ Swenson, Ali (September 11, 2024). "Election officials ask for more federal money but say voting is secure in their states". Associated Press. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ Jessica Pearce Rotondi (January 3, 2024). "What Are Swing States and Why Are They Critical in US Elections?". HISTORY.
- ^ Kondik, Kyle (August 29, 2023). "No, Ohio Is Not in Play". Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ Bischoff, Laura A. (November 8, 2024). "What's the future for Ohio Democrats after huge election losses?". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ Kephart, Tim (November 6, 2024). "Florida joins the rest of the Deep South as a Republican stronghold". ABC Action News. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ "The Latest: Harris keeps a focus on 'blue wall' states in the campaign's final weeks". AP News. October 17, 2024.
- ^ Mejia, Elena; Skelley, Geoffrey (December 8, 2020). "How The 2020 Election Changed The Electoral Map". Archived from the original on April 14, 2022. Retrieved March 19, 2021.
- ^ Weisman, Jonathan; Epstein, Reid J. (September 21, 2024). "How One Man's Vote in Nebraska Could Change the Presidential Election Reid J. Epstein". The New York Times.
- ^ Goldmacher, Shane; Haberman, Maggie; Nehamas, Nicholas (December 24, 2023). "What Went Wrong for Ron DeSantis in 2023". The New York Times. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
- ^ Haberman 2022, p. 648.
- ^ Contorno, Steve (August 13, 2021). "Inside Fox News, DeSantis is 'the future of the party.' And he's taking advantage". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ^ Goldmacher, Shane; Haberman, Maggie; Swan, Jonathan (May 13, 2023). "Why Ron DeSantis Is Limping to the Starting Line". The New York Times. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
- ^ Nehamas, Nicholas; Haberman, Maggie; Swan, Jonathan; Goldmacher, Shane (January 21, 2024). "Ron DeSantis Ends Campaign for President". The New York Times. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
- ^ Nehamas, Nicholas (January 19, 2024). "Ron DeSantis Is Quietly Starting to Build His Off-Ramp From 2024". The New York Times. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
- ^ a b Allen, Jonathan (November 30, 2023). "Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis battle for the presidency — in one election or the next". NBC News. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ Cohn, Nate (July 16, 2024). "How Will Vance Affect the Race? Look at 2028, Not 2024". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (July 17, 2024). "JD Vance is now the MAGA heir-apparent. Does that make him the front-runner for 2028?". USA Today. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ BeMiller, Haley (October 4, 2024). "After VP debate, JD Vance cements status as MAGA heir apparent in 2028". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ Weaver, Al (October 3, 2024). "Debate performance gives Vance 2028 White House boost". The Hill. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ a b c Epstein, Reid; Rogers, Katie; Green, Eric (November 7, 2024). "What's Next for Kamala Harris? Here Are Six Options". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ a b c Wren, Adam; Cadelago, Christopher; Kashinsky, Lisa; Otterbein, Holly; Schneider, Elena (November 11, 2024). "Who will lead Democrats in 2028? Meet the leaders positioning themselves to make moves". Politico. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ Chambers, Francesca (November 7, 2024). "Burdened by what had been: Kamala Harris couldn't convince voters". USA Today. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ Reston, Maeve (December 1, 2023). "Gavin Newsom 2028? His early moves offer a potential glimpse". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ a b Cameron, Chris; Nagourney, Adam (June 28, 2024). "Who Will Replace Biden at the Top of the Ticket?". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam (September 28, 2023). "Newsom Is in the Spin Room to Pump Up Biden, and Maybe Himself". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ a b Thompson, Alex (November 6, 2023). "Newsom, Pritzker signal White House ambitions in donations to S. Carolina candidate". Axios. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ Dovere, Edward-Isaac (November 10, 2024). "Still-stunned Democrats begin to squint toward their future". CNN. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ McGoldrick, Gilliam (November 7, 2024). "Welcome to the 2028 presidential election cycle, where Pa. Gov. Josh Shapiro is a front-runner". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ Sfondeles, Tina (November 8, 2024). "JB Pritzker studies Project 2025 and Trump, ponders his own political future". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ Garcia-Navarro, Lulu (June 22, 2024). "Gretchen Whitmer Wants a Gen X President — in 2028". The New York Times Magazine. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ Martin, Jonathan (July 1, 2024). "Whitmer Disavows 'Draft Gretch' Movement — and Delivers A Warning to Biden". Politico. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
