NEW DELHI: The Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir are witnessing two significant changes from earlier elections. First is the irrelevance of the Hurriyat in the electoral process, while the second one is the rise of Engineer Rashid, whose release from jail on bail has unsettled all electoral equations in the Kashmir region.
For the first time in decades, the elections are happening without the intervention of Huriyat Conference, whose main work was to stop people from voting and from contesting the elections, which eventually resulted in a lower voter turnout in the former state.
A political observer said, “Kashmir always witnessed the lowest voter turnout in the country, but not Jammu, where the Hurriyat did not have much impact. The people in the Valley subscribed to the narrative of Hurriyat who would tell them not to vote. The majority of people would follow them. There was Syed Ali Shah Geelani who was seen as the leader of the Hurriyat Conference. He passed away. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq too would play an equally firm role, but he seems to have gone silent this time. Because of the leadership crisis Hurriyat is fading away.”
Also, Jamaat e Islami Jammu & Kashmir (JeIJK), which was a part of the Hurriyat Conference and favoured boycotting elections, is now contesting the elections. Moreover, local mainstream politicians who participated in elections earlier were belittled by the Hurriyat. The politicians time and again expressed that the elections had no bearing on the Kashmir issue. The people couldn’t vote because of the Hurriyat boycott call and threat of violence by insurgents. So those who won the elections won by getting a small percentage of votes.
The Hurriyat Conference, according to political analysts in Kashmir, was already a divided house by 2014, and many candidates, particularly from Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP, were voted to power with the help of JeIJK in the elections that year.
A political researcher based in Kashmir, Mushtaq-ul-haq Ahmed Sikander said that the 2024 elections are different, because the Hurriyat has been marginalized, while rebel members, ex members and leaders of JeIJK have joined the electoral fray. Moreover, people in Kashmir do not want BJP to come to power, and hence will vote in large numbers to keep the party out. “This election will break all the previous records in terms of voting percentage, with new independents also winning seats, resulting in a fractured mandate. People want to keep those parties (NC and PDP) out of power which they say have deceived them. With the insurgent threat also subsiding, people’s participation in the electoral process will grow immensely.”
RISE OF RASHID
Meanwhile, an interesting development that is taking place is the rise of Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as Engineer Rashid. His release on bail has stirred up his rivals, suggesting that he may again be a challenging force against all of Kashmir’s established parties. According to the party leaders, Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) intends to contest between 35 and 40 seats without forming coalitions with any political party.
After his release, Rashid held a live show with the masses on a social media platform, which garnered more than a million views in just two hours. A political analyst from his Baramulla constituency said, “People gave him a mandate even when he was absent from campaigning in the Lok Sabha elections. Now he is in front of them and is speaking what people want to listen, he is targeting both the national parties (Congress and BJP) as well as the two main regional parties (PDP and NC). His narrative is gaining pace because these parties have never represented the Kashmiri identity adequately and he is filling that void. He is aggressive, he speaks in Kashmiri.”
A senior journalist who has been covering the Jammy and Kashmir elections for two decades said that the timing of Rashid’s release and the way it has been done, raises so many questions. He added, “But the fact is that Rashid’s soft separatism or narrative will end up appealing to a large swathe of population, especially youngsters. This will unsettle the existing political equation. That is the reason why all parties, since his release was announced, have scrambled to counter his narrative.”
In the Lok Sabha elections, Rashid won the Baramulla seat against Omar Abdullah with more than two lakh votes. Omar Abdullah had got just around 268,000 votes, while Rashid got around 470,000 votes. Out of the 18 assembly segments that make up Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency, Rashid won 14 segments. A political observer said, “Rashid will again try to shake Omar’s boat in Ganderbal assembly constituency. If Omar again loses the election against the Rashid’s party, the ex chief minister will be on the back foot on the narrative front. Omar knows how important it is for him to win both the assembly seats (Ganderbal and Budgam) and that is why he has been giving emotional speeches and pleading with the people to help him win.”
The real test for all the parties will be in Baramulla region, with 18 Assembly constituencies. Until now the National Conference was expecting to win a dozen seats from here. However with the advent of Rashid, NC is bound to suffer.
The Kashmir division has 47 Assembly seats, while Jammu has 43. In addition to that, the Centre has the authority to nominate five more legislators, bringing the Assembly strength to 95.