Wikipedia

Auckland Central in the 2020 New Zealand general election

An election took place in the Auckland Central general electorate on 17 October 2020 as part of the 2020 New Zealand general election. After incumbent MP, Nikki Kaye, declared she would not run for re-election, three main candidates emerged as potential victors; Labour candidate and employment lawyer Helen White, National candidate and communications manager Emma Mellow, and incumbent Green list MP Chlöe Swarbrick.

Auckland Central in the 2020 New Zealand general election
← 2017
2023 →
TurnoutCandidate vote: 35,985 (57.19%)
Party vote: 36,403 (57.85%)
 
Candidate Chlöe Swarbrick Helen White Emma Mellow
Party Green Labour National
Popular vote 12,631 11,563 9,775
Percentage 35.10% 32.13% 27.16%
Party vote 6,937 16,751 7,680
Percentage 19.06% 46.02% 21.10%
Voronoi diagram of plurality vote winner at individual polling places
MP before election

Nikki Kaye
National

Elected MP

Chlöe Swarbrick
Green

Two polls conducted before the election showed White ahead, with Mellow and Swarbrick coming second and third, respectively. The closeness in the polls between the three candidates lead to concerns of vote splitting on the left between White and Swarbrick, which might have lead to a Mellow victory. In a surprising result, Swarbrick won with 35% of the vote, with White on 32% coming second, and Mellow on 27% coming third. The result was the second time the Greens had won an electorate, and the first time they had done so without the endorsement of a major party.

Background

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Kaye, who was briefly serving as deputy leader of the National Party, announced she would not seek re-election after Todd Muller stepped down from the party leadership. The 2017 election saw Kaye go up against Labour candidate Helen White, defeating White narrowly, with a margin of +5.38%.[1] White was re-selected as the Labour candidate for 2020. White, who grew up in Freemans Bay (a suburb within the electorate), was ranked 40th on the Labour list in 2017.[2]

The selection process for the National candidate narrowed down to two candidates, Emma Mellow and Nuwanthie Samarakone. This broke the party's rules for shortlisting candidates as the pre-selection committee was supposed to select five candidates from which local party delegates would vote on. National Party President Peter Goodfellow "absolutely and categorically" rejected that the process was manipulated.[3] A photo of Samarakone in a leotard was reported as being passed around party members; Samarakone said she had "no tolerance" for personal attacks.[4] Emma Mellow was selected as the National candidate following a ballot at Ponsonby Cruising Club where Samarakone and another candidate, Rob Thomas, were eliminated. National Party northern regional chair Andre Hunt "bluntly" criticised party members at the meeting for the "outrageous lies" that were spread about Samarakone.[5] The 30-year-old Mellow was a communications manager at ANZ[6] and described herself as a "young liberal female", the same public image that Kaye had successfully used to win the urban electorate.[7]

The Green Party selected Chlöe Swarbrick as their candidate. Swarbrick had been elected as a Green list MP at the 2017 election. She ran an unexpectedly successful campaign in the 2016 Auckland mayoral election, coming third with 7.33% of the vote. In November 2019, before she had been officially selected, political commentator Ben Thomas said a victory for her was "very unlikely".[6][8] Swarbrick herself said the race was "anyone's game".[9] Swarbrick had previously ran in Maungakiekie, though then she wasn't running a "two-tick" campaign and was focusing on boosting the party vote.[10] The Opportunities Party initially had selected Joshua Love as their candidate, but after Love resigned,[11] Tuariki Delamere, former Minister of Immigration during the Fourth National Government, joined the party as their immigration spokesperson and contested the Auckland Central race.[12]

Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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  • Nikki Kaye, incumbent National MP for Auckland Central – announced she would resign and not contest the election.[16]

Campaign

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White had a background as an employment lawyer, citing her 27 years experience in the field as evidence of her ability to solve people's problems.[17] She said that key issues for her were "good public transport, tackling homelessness and maintaining a strong health care system", and pointed to her close relationship with Jacinda Ardern, the popular[a] incumbent Prime Minister, as an advantage she brought to the electorate.[7] White described herself as "pragmatic".[18] White said the three biggest issues in the electorate were affordability, housing, and making the city more walkable, cyclable and public-transit oriented.[17] White's campaign also went after the Green Party's proposed wealth tax, hoping that wealthier voters would be put off by it.[19] She described the policy as "loopy".[18]

There were concerns of vote-splitting amongst the left-wing electorate, with both Labour and the Greens having popular candidates. White frequently pushed this message in hopes it would consolidate the vote around her as Labour is the major party on the left.[20] White called Swarbrick a "celebrity", and positioned Mellow as her main opponent. Swarbrick said that White was using similar tactics to misogynists that had attacked Ardern,[18] referring to comments from White that "[She would] ask [constituents] whether they're looking for a celebrity or someone to do this job very seriously."[10]

The suggestion that Labour do a deal with the Green Party similar to the deal between National and ACT in Epsom was ruled out by Ardern and White.[20] White said recapturing Auckland Central meant a lot to Labour.[18]

A fundraiser in early October for White featured former Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark, and Jennifer Ward-Lealand (2020 New Zealander of the Year) as master of ceremonies. The former prime minister spoke positively of White and expressed to attendees that she would be a voice for Auckland within Labour. Swarbrick had a campaign event on the same night nearby, a drag show with drag queen Anita Wigl'it as host.[21]

Mellow said that her generation, and the electorate generally, cared deeply about jobs and the future of the city including employment and infrastructure. She described the three biggest issues facing the electorate as jobs, investment in infrastructure (including a second harbour crossing), and the environment, specifically the Hauraki Gulf's water quality. When asked why she thought she was the best candidate Mellow pointed to her commercial experience and that she was "hard-working".[17]

According to Swarbrick, some main issues were homelessness[19] (especially among young people), and protecting the Hauraki Gulf. Swarbrick pointed to her track record as a Green MP in dealing with nuanced and complex issues. Swarbrick also said that as a member of a minor party she would have a more independent voice.[17] Swarbrick's campaign manager was 25-year-old Leroy Beckett, who had previously helped Phil Goff's mayoral re-election campaign in 2019.[22]

With the Greens often polling below the 5% minimum threshold, a win in the electorate was seen as a way to secure the continued presence of the party in parliament by some.[10][23][24] The party was also running a "two-tick" campaign in Tāmaki Makaurau, with Marama Davidson standing in Auckland's urban Māori electorate.[21]

Polling

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Polls during the race showed White ahead with Mellow in second; Swarbrick was a close third.[25][26]

Electorate vote
Date[b] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN NZF TOP ACT SNZ TEA IND
Helen White Emma Mellow Nikki Kaye Chlöe Swarbrick Denise Roche Jenny Marcroft Frank Edwards Tuariki Delamere Mika Haka Felix Poole Brooke van Velden Vernon Tava Dominic Hoffman Dervan Joshua Love
24–30 Sep 2020 Q+A Colmar Brunton 35 30 N/A 26 N/A 1 N/A — N/A 4 N/A 2 1 0.4
September 2020 Newshub Nation–Reid Research 42.3 26.6 N/A 24.2 N/A 2.2 N/A 1.0 N/A 0.9 N/A — — —
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 39.82 N/A 45.25 N/A 9.72 N/A 1.98 N/A 2.33 N/A 0.52 N/A N/A N/A
Party vote
Date[b] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN ACT NZF TOP SNZ VNZ SCP
24–30 Sep 2020 Q+A Colmar Brunton 47 28 13 6 1.7 2.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
September 2020 Newshub Nation–Reid Research 56.2 23.1 12.1 3.9 1.6 1.4 — — —
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 37.71 39.15 13.87 1.05 3.87 3.14 N/A N/A 0.01

Results

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In a result that was described as extraordinary[19] and as a major election night upset,[27] Swarbrick clinched the election with 35.10% of the vote, defeating second place White by a margin of just +2.97%; Mellow came third. The win was the Green Party's second-ever electorate win, and unlike the party's previous win with Jeanette Fitzsimons in Coromandel in 1999, they had done so without an endorsement from a major party.[19] Swarbrick attributed her success to a strong volunteer campaign; according to her they had "1000 volunteers" and had spoken to "10,000 constituents".[19] Brigette Morten for RNZ said it was "rumoured to [be] 700 volunteers".[28] Green co-leader Marama Davidson said she was "beyond thrilled".[29] Chloe opined that she was confident her "two-tick" campaign had helped to increase the Green party vote.[26]

Predictions of vote-splitting among left wing candidates did not come to fruition, with both Swarbrick and White achieving more votes than Mellow.[19]

Results for Auckland Central[13]
Party Candidate Candidate vote % pp± Party vote % pp±
Green Chlöe Swarbrick 12,631 35.10 – 6,937 19.06  5.19
Labour Helen White 11,563 32.13  7.42 16,751 46.02  8.31
National Emma Mellow 9,775 27.16 – 7,680 21.10  18.05
ACT Felix Poole 588 1.63 – 2,724 7.48  6.43
The Opportunities Party Tuariki Delamere 320 0.89 – 776 2.13  1.01
New Zealand First Jenny Marcroft 274 0.76 – 622 1.71  2.16
New Conservatives Kevin Stitt 186 0.52 – 197 0.54  0.45
Sustainable New Zealand Vernon Tava 120 0.33 – 59 0.16 –
Independent Joshua Love 73 0.20 – –
TEA Party Dominic Hoffman Dervan 50 0.14 – 35 0.10 –
Independent Chris Sadler 23 0.06 – –
Advance NZ 198 0.54 –
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 99 0.27  0.04
HeartlandNZ 1 0.00 –
Māori Party 111 0.30  0.11
NZ Outdoors Party 15 0.05  0.02
ONE Party 20 0.05 –
Social Credit 7 0.02  0.01
Vision New Zealand 11 0.03 –
Informals
382
1.06
 160 0.44
Turnout
35,985
 57.19%[c]  6.18
36,403
 57.85%[c]  5.64
Registered
43,627
 69.34%[c]  3.24
Electoral population
62,919

Aftermath

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The Greens formed a co-operation agreement with Labour who had secured the first majority government since the introduction of MMP.[30] Swarbrick was the only Green electorate MP for the term of the 53rd Parliament. She would contest the electorate again at the 2023 election, successfully securing re-election. She was joined by two other Green electorate MPs, Tamatha Paul in Wellington Central and Julie Anne Genter in Rongotai.[30] Swarbrick would go on to become a co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024, after James Shaw resigned the position.[31] White served as a list MP for the term of the 53rd Parliament before winning Ardern's former seat of Mount Albert in 2023.[30]

Notes

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  1. ^ See polling on preferred prime minister here.
  2. ^ a b These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  3. ^ a b c of electoral population

References

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  1. ^ "Auckland Central – Official Result". Electoral Commission – Te Kaitiaki Take Kowhiri. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  2. ^ "Labour selects lawyer Helen White as Auckland Central candidate". NZHerald. 23 February 2020. Retrieved 31 July 2024.
  3. ^ Sadler, Rachel (3 August 2020). "Election 2020: National Party admits breaking rules when selecting new Auckland Central candidate". Newshub. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  4. ^ Orsman, Bernard (3 August 2020). "Fitness photo of National Party candidate for Auckland Central circulating among party members". NZHerald. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
  5. ^ a b Wilson, Simon (11 August 2020). "Election 2020: After 'outrageous lies and rumours' National finally selects Emma Mellow as Auckland Central candidate". NZHerald. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
  6. ^ a b Orsman, Bernard (18 October 2020). "Election results 2020: The Greens' Chloe Swarbrick has historic win in Auckland Central". NZHerald. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  7. ^ a b "Meet the three women vying to represent Auckland Central after Nikki Kaye's departure". 1News. 11 August 2020. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  8. ^ Cheng, Derek (28 November 2019). "Nikki Kaye and Chloe Swarbrick: The race for Auckland Central, head girl vs 'high school dropout'". NZHerald. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  9. ^ Molyneux, Vita (16 July 2020). "Chloe Swarbrick says race is on for Nikki Kaye's vacant Auckland Central seat". Newshub. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  10. ^ a b c d e "Election 2020: Helen White vs Chloe Swarbrick – War of words erupts over Auckland Central seat". NZHerald. 26 July 2020. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
  11. ^ a b Kronast, Hannah (1 July 2020). "Auckland The Opportunities Party candidate resigns in scathing online post". Newshub. Retrieved 2 August 2024.
  12. ^ a b McCarron, Heather (18 July 2020). "Former Immigration Minister Tuariki Delamere standing for TOP in Auckland Central". Newshub. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
  13. ^ a b c d e f "Auckland Central – Official Result". Electoral Commission – Te Kaitiaki Take Kowhiri. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  14. ^ Trevett, Claire (17 September 2020). "Election 2020: NZ First's list - MP Jenny Marcroft dumped down to 17th place". NZHerald. Retrieved 2 August 2024.
  15. ^ "Young Act isn't like other youth wing". Youth Wings - Spinoff. 20 August 2020. Retrieved 2 August 2024.
  16. ^ Andelane, Lana (16 July 2020). "Who is Nikki Kaye? National Party deputy, Auckland Central MP, breast cancer survivor". Newshub. Retrieved 2 August 2024.
  17. ^ a b c d Smith, Anneke (2 October 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Helen White, Emma Mellow and Chlöe Swarbrick in a three-way race for Auckland Central". Newshub. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  18. ^ a b c d Orsman, Bernard (13 September 2020). "Helen White: The employment lawyer and pragmatist hoping to win Auckland Central for Labour". NZHerald. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  19. ^ a b c d e f Davison, Isaac (18 October 2020). "Chloe Swarbrick says she won Auckland Central 'the old-fashioned way'". NZHerald. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  20. ^ a b Robson, Sarah (25 July 2020). "Labour rules out deal with Greens in Nikki Kaye's seat". Radio New Zealand. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  21. ^ a b Mandow, Nikki (8 October 2020). "Political campaigning: what a drag". Newsroom. Retrieved 31 July 2024.
  22. ^ Donnell, Hayden (26 January 2021). "The 25-year-old campaign manager behind Chlöe Swarbrick's Auckland Central win". MetroMag. Retrieved 31 July 2024.
  23. ^ Hehir, Liam (27 July 2020). "No need for a deal in Auckland Central". newsroom. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  24. ^ Huffadine, Leith (10 October 2020). "The electorates worth watching on election night". Radio New Zealand. Retrieved 31 July 2024.
  25. ^ "Election 2020: Auckland Central poll – tight race between Labour's Helen White and National's Emma Mellow". NZHerald. 4 October 2020. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  26. ^ a b Auckland reporters (17 October 2020). "Election 2020: Greens' Chlöe Swarbrick takes Auckland Central in shock win". Stuff. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
  27. ^ Weekes, John (20 October 2020). "Chloe Swarbrick: Time for action on Hauraki Gulf, strategy on Auckland's homeles". Stuff. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  28. ^ Morten, Brigette (19 October 2020). "Election 2020: Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick's blueprint for grassroots campaigns in a Covid world". Radio New Zealand. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
  29. ^ Coughlan, Thomas (19 October 2020). "Election 2020: Coming-of-age moment as Greens make MMP history". Stuff. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  30. ^ a b c McConnell, Glenn (11 June 2023). "Chlöe Swarbrick and the Green machine: Can they take another seat off Labour?". Stuff. Retrieved 29 July 2024.
  31. ^ "Green Party elects Chlöe Swarbrick as new co-leader". Stuff. 10 March 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2024.
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