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|4%
|4%
|<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-06-27 |title=Labour on Course to Win 470 Seats and Become the Largest Party in Scotland. |url=https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-update-labour-set-to-become-the-largest-party-in-scotland/ |access-date=2024-06-30 |website=Survation |language=en}}</ref>
|<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-06-27 |title=Labour on Course to Win 470 Seats and Become the Largest Party in Scotland. |url=https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-update-labour-set-to-become-the-largest-party-in-scotland/ |access-date=2024-06-30 |website=Survation |language=en}}</ref>
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|1 July 2024
|Survation MRP
|30%
|'''40%'''
|11%
|12%
|6%
|<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-07-01 |title=Survation MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997. |url=https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/ |access-date=2024-07-03 |website=Survation |language=en}}</ref>
|-
|1 July 2024
|More in Common
|31%
|'''38%'''
|12%
|14%
|3%
|<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-07-01 |title=More in Common projects Labour will gain a majority of over 200 seats on 4 July. |url=https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp-3-july/ |access-date=2024-07-03 |website=More in Common |language=en}}</ref>
|-
|2 July 2024
|YouGov
|26%
|'''34%'''
|13%
|21%
|5%
|<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-07-02 |title=
Final YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory. |url=https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory |access-date=2024-07-03 |website=YouGov |language=en}}</ref>
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Revision as of 17:30, 3 July 2024

Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
County constituency
for the House of Commons
Map
Boundaries since 2024
Map of constituency
Boundary of Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard in the East of England
CountyBedfordshire
Electorate74,069 (2023)[1]
Major settlementsDunstable and Leighton Buzzard
Current constituency
Created2024
Member of ParliamentTBC (TBC)
SeatsOne
Created fromSouth West Bedfordshire

Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard is a constituency of the House of Commons in the UK Parliament.[2] It will first be contested at the 2024 general election.

Boundaries

Further to the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, the composition of the constituency was defined as follows (as they existed on 1 December 2020):

  • Dunstable–Central; Dunstable–Icknield; Dunstable–Manshead; Dunstable–Northfields; Dunstable–Watling; Heath and Reach; Houghton Hall; Leighton Buzzard North; Leighton Buzzard South; Linslade; Parkside; Tithe Farm.[3]

It comprises the communities of Dunstable, Leighton Buzzard, Linslade and Houghton Regis and is the successor to South West Bedfordshire - excluding Eaton Bray, which was transferred to the new constituency of Luton South and South Bedfordshire.

Following a local government boundary review which came into effect in May 2023,[4][5] the constituency now comprises the following wards of Central Bedfordshire from the 2024 general election:

  • Dunstable Central; Dunstable East; Dunstable North; Dunstable South; Dunstable West; Heath & Reach; Houghton Regis East; Houghton Regis West; Leighton-Linslade North; Leighton-Linslade South; Leighton-Linslade West.[6]

Predictions

There have been various MRP national prediction models, which have given the results shown below for Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard. The accuracy of these for individual seat predictions may be debated, especially where boundary changes have been significant.[7]

Since Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard is a new constituency, these models conventionally use a notional baseline result of the 2019 election on the 2024 boundaries, jointly commissioned by the Press Association and major broadcasters from the psephologists Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings.[8]

Notional vote share for 2019 UK general election: Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
Date Model CON LAB LDEM GRN Source
12 Dec 2019 Elections Centre 59% 27% 11% 3% [9]
Models of vote share for 2024 UK general election: Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
Date Model CON LAB LDEM REF GRN Source
3 June 2024 YouGov 34% 38% 7% 13% 6% [10]
3 June 2024 More In Common 36% 37% 13% 9% 4% [11]
4 June 2024 Survation 31% 41% 8% 13% 5% [12]
7 June 2024 New Statesman 32% 37% 8% 15% 5% [13]
11 June 2024 YouGov 30% 34% 11% 19% 6% [14]
14 June 2024 UK Polling Report 38% 33% 10% 12% 7% [15]
14 June 2024 Economist 30% 35% 10% 17% 6% [16]
15 June 2024 Survation 29% 40% 8% 13% 8% [17]
18 June 2024 Ipsos 30% 37% 10% 16% 7% [18]
19 June 2024 More in Common 40% 38% 10% 7% 4% [19]
26 June 2024 Economist / WeThink MRP 27% 41% 7% 18% 6% [20]
26 June 2024 Electoral Calculus 34% 33% 12% 14% 6% [21]
27 June 2024 Survation MRP 31% 42% 11% 10% 4% [22]
1 July 2024 Survation MRP 30% 40% 11% 12% 6% [23]
1 July 2024 More in Common 31% 38% 12% 14% 3% [24]
2 July 2024 YouGov 26% 34% 13% 21% 5% [25]

Members of Parliament

South West Bedfordshire prior to 2024

Election Member Party
2024 TBC TBC

Elections

Elections in the 2020s

2024 general election: Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard[26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrats Emma Holland-Lindsay
Green Sukhinder Hundal
Labour Alex Mayer
Reform UK Harry Palmer
Conservative Andrew Selous
English Democrat Antonio Vitiello
Majority
Turnout

References

  1. ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – Eastern". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 26 June 2024.
  2. ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume one: Report – Eastern | Boundary Commission for England". boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk. Archived from the original on 2023-12-02. Retrieved 2023-12-12.
  3. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023". Schedule I Part 2 Eastern region. Archived from the original on 2024-02-24. Retrieved 2023-12-12.
  4. ^ LGBCE. "Central Bedfordshire | LGBCE". www.lgbce.org.uk. Archived from the original on 2024-04-06. Retrieved 2024-04-06.
  5. ^ "The Central Bedfordshire (Electoral Changes) Order 2021". Archived from the original on 2023-08-26. Retrieved 2024-04-06.
  6. ^ "New Seat Details - Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Archived from the original on 2024-04-06. Retrieved 2024-04-06.
  7. ^ "MRP: what it is and why it may, or may not, be right at the next general election". The Week In Polls. 2023-08-23. Retrieved 2024-05-29.
  8. ^ "Guide to the new Parliamentary Constituencies 2024" (PDF). Elections Centre. January 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
  9. ^ "Notional election for the constituency of Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard on 12 December 2019". parliament.uk. UK Parliament. January 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
  10. ^ "First YouGov MRP of 2024 general election shows Labour on track to beat 1997 landslide". Retrieved 3 June 2024.
  11. ^ "Labour on course to win a majority of over 100". Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  12. ^ "Survation MRP: Labour Set for Record Breaking Majority". Survation. 2024-06-04. Retrieved 2024-06-05.
  13. ^ "Who will win the 2024 UK general election?". 23 May 2024. Retrieved 11 June 2024.
  14. ^ "UK General Election 2024". YouGov. Retrieved 12 June 2024.
  15. ^ "Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard | E14001206". pollingreport.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-14.
  16. ^ "The Economist's UK general election forecast". The Economist. Retrieved 2024-06-14.
  17. ^ "MRP Update: First MRP Since Farage's Return". Survation. 2024-06-15. Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  18. ^ "Ipsos MRP 18 June". 18 June 2024.
  19. ^ "Labour on course to win a majority of over 100". www.moreincommon.org.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
  20. ^ "We Think | WeThink MRP: Historic low for the Tories?". wethink.netlify.app. 2024-06-26. Retrieved 2024-06-26.
  21. ^ "New Seat Details - Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-27.
  22. ^ "Labour on Course to Win 470 Seats and Become the Largest Party in Scotland". Survation. 2024-06-27. Retrieved 2024-06-30.
  23. ^ "Survation MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997". Survation. 2024-07-01. Retrieved 2024-07-03.
  24. ^ "More in Common projects Labour will gain a majority of over 200 seats on 4 July". More in Common. 2024-07-01. Retrieved 2024-07-03.
  25. ^ "Final YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory". YouGov. 2024-07-02. Retrieved 2024-07-03.
  26. ^ "Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard". BBC News. Retrieved 15 June 2024.

See also

This article relating to a constituency of the Parliament of the United Kingdom or its predecessors is a stub. You can help Wikipedia by expanding it.

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