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Frequently asked questions

To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ.

Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?

A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.^[1]

Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?

A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."^[2]

Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?

A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,^[3]^[4] including academically trained ones,^[5]^[6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions.^[7] This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.^[8]
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.^[9]
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).^[10]

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?

A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum.

Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?

A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations.^[11] Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?

A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess.

Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂?

A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.

Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?

A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.^[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change.

Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?

A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.^[12] More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;^[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend.

Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?

A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."^[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?

A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties.

Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?

A12: Measurements show that it has not.^[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?

A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.^[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.^[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)^[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.^[18]

Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?

A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?

A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars.^[19] Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. [...] Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"^[20]
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change.^[21]^[22] This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.^[23]^[24]
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates.^[25] Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Wikipedia's own article.

Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?

A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data.^[26]^[27] Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?

A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction.

Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?

A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying.

Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?

A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?

A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them.

Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?

A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy.

Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?

A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept.

Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?

A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:^[28]

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step."^[29]

Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?

A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details.

References

^ ^a ^b Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
^ Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
^ Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
^ Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
^ The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
^ "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
^ Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
^ The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
^ "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}
^ Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
^ Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
^ Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
^ Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
^ Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
^ "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
^ Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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Archives: Index, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96: 15 days

UN science chief defends work, welcomes review

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100514/ap_on_sc/climate

This is an AP article that mentions the 15 member review panel that is currently examining the IPPC; 'The head of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri defended Friday the work of the thousands of scientists who contribute to its reports, even as he welcomed a review of procedures that produced errors undermining the panel's public credibility.'

"Pachauri told the committee's first review meeting that the panel's conclusions are valid, even in areas where mistakes were discovered. Pointing to the most glaring error, a claim that the world's glaciers will melt by 2035, Pachauri said glaciers are indeed melting, though not that fast. Nonetheless, glacial melt accounts for 28 percent of sea level rise, and the panel's assessment on glaciers contains "a lot of facts which we can ignore at our peril."

We should probably add a mention of the review panel in the article in regards to the IPCC. Mytwocents (talk) 15:48, 14 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

You mean [1]? I'm not sure. Is it very exciting? Maybe in IPCC? William M. Connolley (talk) 16:01, 14 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I already added a mention of this in the IPCC article. Cla68 (talk) 04:16, 18 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Dipole moment...

If I understand things correctly infra-red band energy from the sun is absorbed by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Part of this energy is stored in the bond angle energy (dipole moment) between the atoms of the greenhouse gases and the rest is converted to kinetic energy of the molecules moving around and bumping into each other.

Here is the problem that I have. By volume carbon dioxide has a specific heat of about 1.619 kJ per m^3 * Deg K, nitrogen is 1.299, and oxygen is 1.308. Taking 1 cu meter samples of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and oxygen and adding 1 Kilojoule of energy to each gives the following temperature changes (assuming standard temperature and pressure initial conditions):

Carbon Dioxide - .618 Kelvin temperature increase Oxygen - .765 Kelvin temperature increase Nitrogen - .770 Kelvin temperature increase

And so if the entire atmosphere were made of carbon dioxide, incoming radiant energy from the sun would result in a lower atmospheric temperature than if the entire atmosphere would be oxygen.

Now if changes in atmospheric thickness are the actual cause of global warming (more blankets no matter what they are made of) then my point is mute, but the fascination with the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere seems misplaced. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.3.11.218 (talk) 02:42, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks for your question. Your premise is not in fact correct: it isn't IR from the sun that is absorbed by greenhouse gases, but rather IR emitted by the earth and by other layers of the atmosphere. Solar energy in the thermal IR region is small; most solar energy is in the UV, visible, and near-IR parts of the spectrum. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:57, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

But this still doesn't explain why the focus is on carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas and not oxygen and nitrogen, when for a given amount of energy input (no matter the source), the change in temperature is less for carbon dioxide than it is for oxygen and nitrogen. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.3.11.218 (talk) 19:45, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The key to understanding this is that the sun emits mostly visible light, and all the gases that make up the bulk of the atmosphere are transparent to visible light. So the visible light from the sun hits the ground (ignoring clouds, which play a complex role on both sides of the equation) and warm it. The Earth emits most of its energy in the infrared part of the spectrum. Nitrogen and Oxygen are nearly transparent to infrared light, too, so they do not absorb this outgoing radiation. Thus there is very little energy input into them. CO2, on the other hand, is not IR transparent. It absorbs the outgoing infrared light. This is eventually re-emitted, partially towards the Earth, warming it. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 20:02, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

See Idealized greenhouse model and Greenhouse effect. --Nigelj (talk) 20:07, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

By coincidence, I recently added this as the last point in Greenhouse effect#Basic mechanism William M. Connolley (talk) 20:37, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I guess I don't have a firm grasp on the time periods involved between a greenhouse gas absorbing infra-red energy and then releasing that energy. Is the time-frame a day (absorption) / night (release) cycle like oceans (warm ocean breeze on a cool night) or something more complex like pressure / temperature conditions? Also, I don't know if the infrared absorption is a quantitized event. Does a given amount of carbon dioxide have a fixed limit to the amount of infra-red energy it can absorb? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.3.11.218 (talk) 02:36, 18 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The time period is a very tiny fraction of a second. If really you want the details look up something called the Einstein coefficient. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 04:22, 18 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

That is misleading. Obviously, some of the energy stored in the atmosphere during the day is released at night. While Boris is right in saying that the energy Greenhouse Gases absorb is lost in a fraction of a second, he did not explain that it is transferred to the atmosphere and not simply returned to the surface. As a result, the Greenhouse Gases do not store the energy returned to the Earth hours or months later. BTW, infrared absorption is a quantized event. Q Science (talk) 05:17, 18 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Ocean warming

The Argo project has published the following snippet about ocean warming on their web: [2] and has a nice graph showing how the heat content of the world oceans have changed the last 50 years or so. I seems like it would complement the surface temperature graphs nicely, maybe it could find its way into the article somehow? Apis (talk) 10:56, 19 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The full article is apparently Levitus, S. and Antonov, JI and Boyer, TP and Locarnini, RA and Garcia, HE and Mishonov, AV, Global ocean heat content 1955--2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems, GRL 36, 2009. It's been sitting for a year, been cited frequently, and at a glance I see no red flags. So yes, it looks fine. Are the plots produced by NOAA and hence PD? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 11:19, 19 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I can't answer that, but I found this pdf [3] with the article as it was published and 17 additional pages with more graphs (in color and higher resolution.) The one in question is on page 20 in color, and in b/w in the article at page 2. If/how that affect its PD-status i don't know. Apis (talk) 12:04, 19 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I created my own plot based on the one in the article, in case that one can't be used. (I hope that is ok). Any suggestions? (Or if anyone wants to make a different version, I can post the data somewhere.) Apis (talk) 18:14, 19 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

How does this relate to Lyman et al. [4], [5]? William M. Connolley (talk) 15:43, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Add Still skeptical? Reports document climate change by the US National Academy of Sciences

Add Still skeptical? Reports document climate change in the USA Today by the United States National Academy of Sciences &/or Scientists Reassert Man's Role in a Changing Climate? 99.29.184.183 (talk) 04:26, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

For this article, I would suggest to add pertinent parts of the NAS report itself (if it contains anything new), not reports on the availability of that report. It probably should go into global warming controversy, though. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:24, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I don't see anything there which could possibly go in this article. However, it may be a good faith edit, although the IP is in a range which suggests edits emphasizing global warming, regardless of accuracy or suitability for Wikipedia, so I have doubts. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 08:17, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I agree on the USA Today article - its sensationalism as MSM is wont. But the NAS reports may have a place, if not elsewhere, then to add additional refs to the basic conclusions about global warming, since they are newer than the IPCC's. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 12:45, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Why is User:Arthur Rubin attempting to break the link from Global warming to Environmental migrant? POV?

Why is User:Arthur Rubin attempting to break the link from Global warming to Environmental migrant? POV? 209.255.78.138 (talk) 16:37, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Because it doesn't belong. I made a mistake in removing Category:Climate change from Environmental migrant, after I proposed deleting Category:Climate refugees, as it would have left Envirnomental migrant uncategorized. It should link from climate change, if anywhere. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 16:41, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

You trashed a list of works by Jeff Goodell too, which has been restored. So far not a concise clearly well-written book, but not a reason to delete. Are you on a rampage, hopefully not? 209.255.78.138 (talk) 16:44, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Nope. I deleted the Wikilink, not the book. If the list of books got deleted, it must have been an edit conflict. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 16:53, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

You write like you are being reasonable, but what of your Chicago Climate Exchange deletions, also without explanation? Appears disingenuous: POV push by Bureaucracy tactics? Enough time spent in this spot, see Talk:Chicago Climate Exchange. 209.255.78.138 (talk) 17:27, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The first paragraph I removed was unsourced and irrelevant, and the Controversy section was unsourced (by the time I removed it) and a BLP violation. If the [2] through [4] could be matched to actual references, it might be allowable. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 17:58, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

There are no diffs here, and the discussion is a bit terse to follow, but I do not agree that Environmental migrant should not be linked from Global warming, only from climate change. We have discussed in the past here that the two terms are mostly synonymous, with the current climate change being a global warming. The CC article therefore covers the whole history of changes, and GW focusses mostly on the current warming. Environmental migrant is largely about current migrations, with only two lines about the ones that accompanied past ice ages etc. Indeed, the lede there begins with a link to Global warming. If there is to be a link, it should be from here. Where was it? In the text? As a See Also? As a {main}? --Nigelj (talk) 18:29, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I don't know where it was. I think the anon was complaining about my removing the "Environmental migrant" from Category:Global warming. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 18:54, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

"Controversial" greenhouse effect

I've added tags to the section on greenhouse gases because of this section of text:

The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere are purported to warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.^[1] The existence of the greenhouse effect is a subject of controversy;^[vague] for example, Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the Saint Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory^[2]^[3] has stated that "ascribing 'greenhouse' effect properties to the Earth's atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated."^[4]^{[unbalanced opinion?]} The question in terms of global warming is how the strength of the presumed greenhouse effect changes when human activity increases the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

I see absolutely no reason for this scientist's views to take priority of the views of the majority of experts, as reflected in the IPCC reports, National Research Council reports, joint-scientific academy statements, etc. To include this scientist's viewpoint is therefore unbalanced and biased.

A fair treatment of so-called sceptic views is already included in the section views on global warming. Since "sceptical" views have such little scientific support, the amount of space given to them (two sentences) is appropriate. Actually, I think two sentences is rather generous. Enescot (talk) 15:16, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Well spotted. I wonder how long that has been in. Yes, it should be chopped out as FRINGE. I will. We ought to have something in there to say "the direct RF is X w/m2; with feedbacks Y; the exact number Y is subject to debate". Perhaps pull something in from the RF article. William M. Connolley (talk) 15:40, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

It's been put in by some small communist agitator riding around on a large agricultural machine. I've wondered about it, but assume it's part of an experiment, maybe to see if any of the new "I agree with the science! Really! And I once was an evolutionist, too!" editors will fix it. Please delete this message after reading. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 18:43, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Astutely observed. The agitator appears to be writing for the enemy. Which one? . . . dave souza, talk 19:10, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Commie scum. I didn't bother check his edits William M. Connolley (talk) 22:00, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

"Commie scum" is not nice :( Torontokid2006 (talk) 22:22, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The subject will be sufficiently understanding. Trust me. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:36, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Sorry: we're a bit inbred here William M. Connolley (talk) 22:41, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

In my homeland we don't call it inbreeding. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 23:39, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I think you misspelled Rodina. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 00:23, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Oookay. Yes, it was a sincere attempt at "writing for the enemy". Specifically, I was trying to put myself in the place of someone who doesn't understand the topic and thinks the popular press should be used in preference to the scientific literature. Note my sources satisfied WP:V: major newspapers and magazines, non-self published books, and so on. Maybe it didn't work out that well, so roll back whatever you want. But there's a good chance this is what the future will look like. (And yes, I was a little surprised that the material remained so long without comment.) Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 23:47, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Too far?

This is all very well [6] but probably goes too far William M. Connolley (talk) 21:35, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Any suggestions? Torontokid2006 (talk) 21:53, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Hipocrite has made a useful improvement on that specific point, but our comrade's writing for anemone has left some unfortunate artefacts. Could someone more informed than myself review and undo unwanted changes? . . dave souza, talk 19:53, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I notice the Daily Mail citation has been removed in the diff provided just above. Radical commie pinko inbreeder Comrade Boris writes in a nearby talk section that major newspapers (which the Daily Mail is) qualify as reliable sources. But actually the WP:SOURCES and WP:IRS analysis doesn't stop there. For convenience, I'll repeat [essentially] verbatim a comment I submitted some months ago.

I would have thought it a given that the Daily Mail tabloid is an inherently unreliable source [for an article such as this, which deals with current science]. The policy WP:SOURCES plainly states in the first sentence: "Articles should be based upon reliable, third-party published sources with a reputation for fact-checking and accuracy" Any number of background sources would confirm that the Daily Mail does not fit this definition of a WP:RS. See, e.g. The cultural politics of climate change discourse in UK tabloids, by University of Oxford's Maxwell T. Boykoff, or this brief summary reporting of the Oxford study, or another brief review of Daily Mail "predictions" over the course of some 18 months, etc. And of course, the Mail is world famous as a tabloid that plays fast and loose with the truth, not for fact-checking and accuracy.

In a word, the Daily Mail is not a reliable source for the views of the scientific community w.r.t. scientific issues. So, yes, I support the removal of popular literature and newspaper accounts that manufacture controversy where there is no genuine scientific controversy, at least not about the basics of this topic. The question whether GHGs account for all of observed warming in the 20th and early 21st century is about as more controversial among the relevant scientific community as the question "where do babies come from?" is among the general public. And the statement presently in the article summarizing the view of the scientific community as being that present-day global warming is caused by increases in GHG's due to anthropogenic activity is a reasonable statement to straightforwardly make in the article lead. ..... Kenosis (talk) 21:19, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The ideas should be reported. But I agree, the sources were rubbish William M. Connolley (talk) 21:56, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Add Tokyo University's Yoichi Kaya formula F=Pgef ?

F = global CO2 emissions (Includes combustion,flaring of natural gas, cement production, oxidation of nonfuel hydrocarbons, and transport.)

P = global Population (Total number of human beings, about 6 billion)

g = Consumption per person (Gross World Product/Population)

e = energy intensity of gross world product (global energy consumption/gross world product)

f = carbon used to make all that energy (global CO2 emissions/global energy consumption)

[7] Wired (magazine) printed page 38, June 2010, by Julie Rehmeyer 99.54.142.111 (talk) 17:52, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Not clear how this adds to the article - unlike Y = C + I + G + NX this dosen't seem to say something interesting - in addition, the variables are less interesting than the "right" variables, which would be population, unit consumption per person, kwh energy use per unit consumption, and lb carbon emission per kwh energy use. Hipocrite (talk) 18:00, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Good points, not clear enough. 99.88.231.63 (talk) 22:22, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Unbiased please

I would like to suggest editing the current wikipedia page on global warming concerning the obvious bias towards the theory that global warming is caused by man. Wikipedia is a source for truthfull information not a venue for propagating a political agenda. Thanks :) —Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.5.108.51 (talk) 07:11, 26 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

See scientific opinion on global warming. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:47, 26 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Politics of global warming (United States) &/or Politics of global warming of interest? Then maybe Climate change denial and logically to Climate change mitigation... 99.60.124.196 (talk) 14:24, 26 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

An equation is documented at ^[5] that calculates average global temperatures since 1895 with a coefficient of determination of over 0.86. Anyone that can use a spreadsheet can verify it. Dan Pangburn (talk) 22:01, 26 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Not a reliable source, and, in fact, quite bad nonsense. If you think otherwise, submit it to a peer-reviewed journal. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 00:09, 27 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

@69.5.108.51 what part specifically did you find biased? You're not saying the entire article is biased are you? Torontokid2006 (talk) 23:33, 26 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

At the end of the summary, the article states: "There is no debate amongst the scientific community as to whether or not human-made global warming is real.[6]" The reference is to a 6 year old article, basing the statement on IPCC reports - an organisation that is under criticism itself for driving political agendas. It is furthermore not a statement that is true today as a report from 2009 from Japans JSER or Japan Society of Energy and Resources is openly criticising that we call the conjecture about man made global warming truth. The Register took time and translated a portion of the report: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/02/25/jstor_climate_report_translation/ 85.228.18.105 (talk) 07:59, 27 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

If you want more recent endorsements of the consensus, see scientific opinion on climate change or the recent US NAS report. As for JSER, see Talk:Global_warming/Archive_49#Recent_climate_change_is_driven_by_natural_cycles.2C_not_human_industrial_activity and Talk:Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change/Archive_7#Japan_Society_of_Energy_and_Resources_.28JSER.29. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 08:14, 27 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks for the links about JSER. It did clarify a couple of things. I would suggest linking to the scientific opinion on climate change wiki page as a source rather than that weird article, it is much more clarifying on the subject. The sentence should also be rephrased to something like "There are currently no scientific bodies opposing the notion of man made global warming." Instead of that there is no debate about it - there is always debate about topics of science. 85.228.18.105 (talk) 15:14, 27 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I'd agree about changing the wording. There are without a doubt intelligent persons with relevant scientific degrees who do not completely agree with the current opinions of Global Warming popular within the scientific community. And don't forget, science isn't a democracy (and neither is Wikipedia for that matter). Kerrow (talk) 00:38, 28 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

You cannot reason someone out of an opinion that they did not reason themselves into in the first place. Rick Norwood (talk) 13:00, 27 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The wording should remain. According to the Wiki principles the article is fine. I don't recall a wiki principle stating that 6 year articles were void. If you can find another "meta-analysis" (an analysis of hundreds of random peer-reviewed scientific studies) that does NOT show such a conclusive consensus amongst the scientific community then please share it. Just saying, "There are without a doubt intelligent persons with relevant scientific degrees who do not completely agree with the current opinions of Global Warming popular within the scientific community" does not disregard the fact that there is a global SCIENTIFIC consensus. Neither does it disregard the fact that some scientists are paid by massive energy conglomerates to deny studies and to spread misinformation. The crux of wikipedia is the use of reliable sources. Are we going to start quoting fox news in this article? I sincerely hope not. Torontokid2006 (talk) 05:43, 28 May 2010 (UTC). —Preceding unsigned comment added by Torontokid2006 (talk • contribs) 05:42, 28 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

@ 69.5.108.51 - To my nameless friend. You said, "The reference is to a 6 year old article, basing the statement on IPCC reports - an organisation that is under criticism itself for driving political agendas." In a very short statement you made two large errors. First, you were wrong that this article was based on IPCC reports and second you have made an assumption that the IPCC is under criticism (not that it matters since the IPCC is not relevant to Oreskes' article) and that it is driving a political agenda. Please prove those statements with reliable sources lest you propogate misinformation which in fact is not what this talk section is for. Now I will continue responding to your non-factual remarks. First, it would greatly help your argument if you had correctly read the "meta-analysis" by Oreskes. I will post her exact statements here so you can read it again. Her article states, "The drafting of such reports and statements involves many opportunities for comment, criticism, and revision, and it is not likely that they would diverge greatly from the opinions of the societies' members. Nevertheless, they might downplay legitimate dissenting opinions. That hypothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abstracts, published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords "climate change". The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position." Please be more careful when posting on the talk section. Torontokid2006 (talk) 06:11, 28 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

^ Weart, Spencer (2008). "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect". The Discovery of Global Warming. American Institute of Physics. Retrieved 21 April 2009.
^ link
^ photo
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^ http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true

[Powell2019-1] Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.

[WMO-FAQS-2] "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.

[3] Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)

[4] Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[5] Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.

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[7] Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[8] "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.

[9] Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.

[10] The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.

[11] "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.

[12] Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.

[13] The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.

[14] "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}

[15] Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.

[16] Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.

[17] Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.

[18] Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.

[19] Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.

[20] Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.

[21] Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[22] Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[23] Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[24] Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[25] Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)

[26] Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.

[27] Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.

[28] "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.

[29] Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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[31] ^ link

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