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'Weather balloon' as cover story for Project Mogul

In 1994 and 1997, US Government reports concluded that the Roswell Incident stemmed from a Project MOGUL balloon.

Beginning in 1978, Jesse Marcel publicly reported that the claims of a weather balloon had been a cover story. In 1991, retired USAF Brigadier General Thomas DuBose corroborated Marcel's admission.[1] In 1993, in response to an inquiry from US congressman Steven Schiff of New Mexico,[2] the General Accounting Office launched an inquiry and directed the Office of the United States Secretary of the Air Force to conduct an internal investigation. A 1994 Air Force report concluded that the material recovered in 1947 was likely debris from the then top secret Project Mogul, a military surveillance program employing high-altitude balloons (a classified portion of an unclassified New York University project by atmospheric researchers[3]). Ufologists had previously considered the possibility that the Roswell debris had come from a top-secret balloon. During the final year of World War 2, Japan had launched thousands of paper and silk balloons carrying bombs designed to cause damage and spread panic in the United States.[4][5] In March 1990, Ufologist John Keel proposed that the Roswell debris had been from a Japanese balloon bomb.[6][7] An Air Force meteorologist roundly rejected the theory, explaining a Japanese balloon "could not possibly have stayed aloft for two years".[8]

In 1990, Ufologist Robert G. Todd had first connected Roswell to Project Mogul.[9]

Sheridan Cavitt sworn testimony

Sheridan W. Cavitt was a Counterintelligence Corps Special Agent for the US Air Force, he is a witness who was corroborated by Marcel to have visited the site. He provided a sworn witness statement that he encountered balloon debris at the site which was included in the first official Roswell Report.[10]

Scholars[11] conclude that the military decided to conceal the true purpose of the crashed device – nuclear test monitoring – and instead inform the public that the crash was of a weather balloon.[12] The balloon had been launched from Alamogordo Army Air Field a month earlier. It carried a radar reflector and classified Project Mogul sensors for experimental monitoring of Soviet nuclear testing.[13]

Air Force declassification officer Lieutenant James McAndrew concluded:

When the civilians and personnel from Roswell AAF [...] 'stumbled' upon the highly classified project and collected the debris, no one at Roswell had a 'need to know' about information concerning MOGUL. This fact, along with the initial mis-identification and subsequent rumors that the 'capture' of a 'flying disc' occurred, ultimately left many people with unanswered questions that have endured to this day.[14]

Reference scratchpad

1947 Roswell debris = Mogul balloon[15]

1947 Roswell debris most likely = Flight #4[16]

References

  1. ^ Pflock 2001, pp. 33
  2. ^ "Los Angeles Times". January 30, 1994. p. 12 – via Newspapers.com.
  3. ^ Frazier, Kendrick (2017). "The Roswell Incident at 70: Facts, Not Myths". Skeptical Inquirer. Vol. 41, no. 6. pp. 12–15. Archived from the original on 2018-07-20. Retrieved 20 July 2018.
  4. ^ Saler, Ziegler & Moore 1997, p. 7
  5. ^ Matthias, Franklin (10 August 2016). "Japanese Balloon Bombs 'Fu-Go'". Atomic Heritage Foundation. Japan's latest weapon, the balloon bombs were intended to cause damage and spread panic in the continental United States.
  6. ^ Gulyas 2016, "Numerous explanations have arisen, ranging from Japanese "Fugo" balloons [...]"
  7. ^ Gulyas 2014, "[...] from John Keel, who advocated a solution to the Roswell question which credited Japanese Fugo balloons as the 'mysterious craft,' to Nick Redfern, whose Body Snatchers in the Desert [...]".
  8. ^ Huyghe 2001, p. 133, "Edward Doty, a meteorologist who established the Air Force's Balloon Branch at nearby Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico beginning in 1948, calls the Japanese Fu-Go balloons 'a very fine technical job with limited resources.' But 'no way could one of these balloons explain the Roswell episode,' says Doty,'because they could not possibly have stayed aloft for two years.'"
  9. ^ Saler, Ziegler & Moore 1997, pp. 27
  10. ^ Weaver & McAndrew 1995, p. 160
  11. ^ Including Weaver & McAndrew, Olmsted, and others
  12. ^ Olmsted 2009, p. 184: Olmsted writes "When one of these balloons smashed into the sands of the New Mexico ranch, the military decided to hide the project's real purpose." In 1994 and 1997, official government reports (Weaver & McAndrew 1995) concluded (p. 9) "... the material recovered near Roswell was consistent with a balloon device and most likely from one of the MOGUL balloons that had not been previously recovered."
  13. ^ Frazier 2017
  14. ^ Weaver & McAndrew 1995, p. 316
  15. ^ Lorem ipsum:
    • Frank 2023, p. 551 "The weather-balloon story was indeed a lie. Instead, what crashed on Brazel's ranch was Project Mogul, a secret experimental program using high-altitude balloons to monitor Russian nuclear tests.
    • Olmsted 2009, p. 184, "When one of these balloons smashed into the sands of the New Mexico ranch, the military decided to hide the project's real purpose."
    • Korff 1997, fig. 7, "Unbeknownst to Major Marcel, the debris was actually the remnants of a highly classified military spy device known as Project Mogul."
    • Klass 1997a, fig. 3, "[...] the debris was from a 600-foot long string of twenty-three weather balloons and three radar targets that had been launched from Alamogordo Army Air Field as part of a "Top Secret" Project Mogul [...]"
    • McAndrew 1997, "This 1,000-page report methodically explains that what was recovered by the Army Air Forces was not the remnants of an extraterrestrial spacecraft and its alien crew, but debris from an Army Air Forces balloon-borne research project code named MOGUL."
  16. ^ Lorem ipsum:
    • Young 2020, p. 27, "[...] launch #4 on June 4, 1947, captured the public's attention when a local rancher recovered the balloon debris. Noting unusual metallic objects attached to the debris and suspecting they belonged to the military, the rancher turned the material and objects over to officers at Roswell Army Airfield (RAAF)."
    • Frazier 2017, "The reporter should have told readers what we now know the debris to have been: remnants of a long train of research balloons and equipment launched by New York University atmospheric researchers – specifically Flight No. 4."
    • Bullard 2016, "Meanwhile, the Air Force rushed its own investigation and concluded that the wreckage belonged to a Project Mogul balloon array that had disappeared in June 1947."
    • Gildenberg 2003, p. 62, "One such flight, launched in early June, came down on a Roswell area sheep ranch, and created one of the most enduring mysteries of the century. Review of project records has identified that flight, with a very high degree of certainty, as Mogul Flight #4, launched on June 4th"
    • Pflock 2001, p. 159, "Flight 4 was all but certainly the Roswell crashed saucer."
    • Goldberg 2001, p. 214, "What Mac Brazel found was probably test flight balloon #4 from the top secret Mogul Project that was designed to develop a long-range system to detect Soviet atomic detonations and ballistic missile launches."
    • Saler, Ziegler & Moore 1997, p. 9, "Flight #4 is a likely candidate to explain the debris later recovered [near Roswell] [...] It now seems likely that Brazel found some of the wreckage from NYU Flight #4."
    • Weaver & McAndrew 1995, p. 27, " The material and a ”black box,” described by Cavitt, was, in Moore’s scientific opinion, most probably from Flight 4, a 'service flight' that included a cylindrical metal sonobuoy and portions of a weather instrument housed in a box, which was unlike typical weather radiosondes which were made of cardboard"

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