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2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

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For related races, see 2020 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2020 Alaska Senate election.

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Nominee Dan Sullivan Al Gross
Party Republican Independent[a]
Alliance Democratic[a]
Popular vote 191,112 146,068
Percentage 53.90% 41.19%
Sullivan:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Gross:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70-80%      >80%
Tie:      40–50%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Dan Sullivan
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Dan Sullivan
Republican

Elections in Alaska
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the nationwide presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Al Gross, the son of Avrum Gross, who ran as an independent candidate.[2] John Wayne Howe, the nominee of the Alaskan Independence Party, was also on the ballot and finished a distant third.

Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020.[3] Some pundits considered this to be a potential "dark horse" flip for the Democrats, as Gross did unexpectedly well[4] in polling despite Alaska usually being considered a Republican stronghold, even leading in some polls.[5] However, this lead did not materialize. Sullivan won re-election by a margin of 12.7%, triple his average lead in the pre-election polling. Sullivan also became the first candidate since 2002 to win a Senate election in Alaska with more than 50% of the vote.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Withdrawn

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Dan Sullivan

U.S. federal officials

Individuals

Primary results

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Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent) 65,257 100.00%
Total votes 65,257 100.00%

Libertarian–Democratic–Independence primary

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Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaska Libertarian Party, and the Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[12]

Democratic candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Disqualified from the ballot

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  • Larry N. Barnes (independent)[8][b]

Withdrawn

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  • David Darden (independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election[8]

Alaskan Independence candidates

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Nominee

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  • John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist[14]

Endorsements

[edit]
Al Gross

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Unions

Primary results

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Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Al Gross 50,047 79.87%
Democratic Edgar Blatchford 5,463 8.72%
Independence John Howe 4,165 6.65%
Independent Christopher Cumings 2,989 4.77%
Total votes 62,664 100.00%

Other candidates

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Green Party

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Nominee

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Independent

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Declared

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Withdrawn

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  • David Matheny, wildfire technician[31][32]

General election

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Issues

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Pebble Mine

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Before the election, the Trump administration considered granting a permit for the construction of Pebble Mine, a copper, gold, and molybdenum mine in Bristol Bay.[33] Gross and Sullivan were both critical of the mine by August 2020, citing environmental concerns.[34][35] In September 2020, recordings were released in which executives Tom Collier and Ron Thiessen stated that Alaska's senators, including Sullivan, would not take any concrete steps to oppose the mine despite their stated opposition.[36] Gross used the recordings to attack Sullivan, claiming that Sullivan actually supported Pebble Mine. In response, Sullivan clarified his opposition to the mine.[37] The mine was a major topic during the Senate debate on October 10. In the debate, Gross attacked Sullivan for being insufficiently opposed to the mine, while Sullivan defended his opposition.[38]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[39] Lean R October 29, 2020
FiveThirtyEight[40] Likely R November 2, 2020
Economist[41] Lean R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[42] Lean R October 30, 2020
DDHQ[43] Lean R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[44] Lean R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] Lean R November 2, 2020
RCP[46] Lean R October 23, 2020
Politico[47] Lean R November 2, 2020

Endorsements

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Dan Sullivan (R)

U.S. federal officials

Organizations

Individuals

Labor unions

Newspapers

Al Gross (I)

U.S. senators

State executives

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Unions

Polls

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Graphical summary

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Dan
Sullivan (R) 		Al
Gross (I) 		John
Howe (AI) 		Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing[62] October 26–28, 2020 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 45% – – 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[63][A] October 19–20, 2020 800 (V) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 5% – 10%
Change Research (I)[64][B] October 16–19, 2020 1,076 (LV) ± 4% 47% 44% 3% – 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[65] October 9–14, 2020 423 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 37% 10% 2%[d] 7%[e]
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[66][B] October 10–13, 2020 606 (LV) ± 4% 46% 47% – – –
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[66][B] October 2–6, 2020 600 (LV) – 46% 46% – – –
Patinkin Research Strategies[67] September 30 – October 4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 46% 47% – 2%[f] 5%
Alaska Survey Research[68] September 26 – October 4, 2020 696 (LV) – 48% 44% – – 8%
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[69][C] September 20–23, 2020 602 (LV) ± 4% 46% 45% – – –
Public Policy Polling (D)[70][1] August 27–28, 2020 638 (V) ± 3.9% 43% 43% – – 14%
Public Policy Polling[71][D] July 7–8, 2020 1,081 (V) ± 3.0% 39% 34% – – 27%
Alaska Survey Research[72] June 23 – July 7, 2020 663 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 40% – – 7%
Hypothetical polling

with Forrest Dunbar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Dan
Sullivan (R) 		Forrest
Dunbar (D) 		Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies[73] May 28 – Jun 4, 2019 500 (LV) – 39% 39% 22%

with Forrest Dunbar as an independent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Dan
Sullivan (R) 		Forrest
Dunbar (I) 		Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies[73] May 28 – June 4, 2019 500 (LV) – 42% 40% 19%

Results

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2020 United States Senate election in Alaska[74]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent) 191,112 53.90% +5.94%
Independent Al Gross[a] 146,068 41.19% −4.64%
Independence John Howe 16,806 4.74% N/A
Write-in 601 0.17% −0.32%
Total votes 354,587 100.0%
Republican hold

By state house district

[edit]
By state house district
District[75] Dan Sullivan
Republican 		Al Gross
Independent 		John Howe
Independence 		Write-in Margin Total
votes 		Representative
# % # % # % # % # %
District 1 3,487 48.36 3,293 45.67 414 5.74 16 0.22 194 2.69 7,210 Bart LeBon
District 2 3,379' 59.75 1,895 33.51 372 6.58 9 0.16 1,484 26.24 5,655 Steve M. Thompson
District 3 6,004 72.32 1,810 21.80 480 5.78 8 0.10 4,194 50.52 8,302 Mike Prax
District 4 4,817 45.69 5,301 50.28 407 3.86 17 0.16 -484 -4.59 10,542 Grier Hopkins
District 5 4,188 48.49 4,104 47.52 332 3.84 13 0.15 84 0.97 8,637 Adam Wool
District 6 5,601 60.87 3,068 33.34 518 5.63 15 0.16 2,533 16.66 9,202 Mike Cronk
District 7 6,752 70.90 2,185 22.94 563 5.91 23 0.24 4,567 47.96 9,523 Christopher Kurka
District 8 7,253 73.86 1,980 20.16 574 5.84 13 0.13 5,273 53.70 9,820 Kevin J. McCabe
District 9 7,582 69.53 2,786 25.55 519 4.76 17 0.16 4,796 43.98 10,904 George Rauscher
District 10 7,735 69.72 2,742 24.71 598 5.39 20 0.18 4,993 45.00 11,095 David Eastman
District 11 7,051 66.63 3,047 28.79 476 4.50 8 0.08 4,004 37.84 10,582 DeLena Johnson
District 12 7,877 70.73 2,824 25.36 425 3.82 11 0.10 5,053 45.37 11,137 Cathy Tilton
District 13 4,684 62.75 2,400 32.15 372 4.98 8 0.11 2,284 30.60 7,464 Ken McCarty
District 14 7,114 62.23 3,894 34.06 415 3.63 9 0.08 3,220 28.17 11,432 Kelly Merrick
District 15 2,613 48.61 2,449 45.56 308 5.73 5 0.09 164 3.05 5,375 David Nelson
District 16 3,545 43.87 4,110 50.87 410 5.07 15 0.19 -565 -6.99 8,080 Ivy Spohnholz
District 17 2,903 40.42 3,951 55.01 315 4.39 13 0.18 -1,048 -14.59 7,182 Andy Josephson
District 18 2,807 36.63 4,553 59.41 289 3.77 14 0.18 -1,746 -22.78 7,663 Harriet Drummond
District 19 1,876 35.73 3,046 58.01 310 5.90 19 0.36 -1,170 -22.28 5,251 Geran Tarr
District 20 2,526 33.95 4,657 62.59 243 3.27 14 0.19 -2,131 -28.64 7,440 Zack Fields
District 21 3,980 42.21 5,141 54.52 296 3.14 12 0.13 -1,161 -12.31 9,429 Matt Claman
District 22 4,977 52.16 4,202 44.04 336 3.52 26 0.27 775 7.91 9,541 Sara Rasmussen
District 23 3,734 48.38 3,638 47.14 335 4.34 11 0.14 96 1.24 7,718 Chris Tuck
District 24 5,835 55.87 4,363 41.78 238 2.28 7 0.07 1,472 14.10 10,443 Thomas McKay
District 25 4,556 49.07 4,367 47.03 350 3.77 12 0.13 189 2.04 9,285 Calvin Schrage
District 26 5,651 55.95 4,172 41.31 267 2.64 10 0.10 1,479 14.64 10,100 Laddie Shaw
District 27 4,534 47.76 {4,608 48.54 342 3.60 9 0.09 -74 -0.78 9,493 Liz Snyder
District 28 6,753 52.83 5,776 45.18 244 1.91 10 0.08 977 7.64 12,783 James D. Kaufman
District 29 7,237 67.86 2,923 27.41 497 4.66 7 0.07 4,314 40.45 10,664 Ben Carpenter
District 30 7,034 70.06 2,502 24.92 485 4.83 19 0.19 4,532 45.14 10,040 Ron Gillham
District 31 6,763 54.84 5,049 40.94 498 4.04 23 0.19 1,714 13.90 12,333 Sarah Vance
District 32 4,309 52.49 3,449 42.01 438 5.34 13 0.16 860 10.48 8,209 Louise Stutes
District 33 3,074 28.20 7,463 68.47 341 3.13 21 0.19 -4,389 -40.27 10,899 Sara Hannan
District 34 4,667 43.57 5,608 52.35 427 3.99 10 0.09 -941 -8.78 10,712 Andi Story
District 35 4,388 43.84 5,004 49.99 598 5.97 20 0.20 -616 -6.15 10,010 Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
District 36 5,005 54.42 3,679 40.00 495 5.38 18 0.20 1,326 14.42 9,197 Dan Ortiz
District 37 2,393 47.17 2,303 45.40 366 7.21 11 0.22 90 1.77 5,073 Bryce Edgmon
District 38 1,698 32.07 2,972 56.13 610 11.52 15 0.28 -1,274 -24.06 5,295 Tiffany Zulkosky
District 39 2,403 41.03 2,701 46.12 699 11.93 54 0.92 -298 -5.09 5,857 Neal Foster
District 40 2,275 49.56 1,706 37.17 594 12.94 15 0.33 569 12.40 4,590 Josiah Patkotak
Totals 191,112 53.90 146,068 41.19 16,806 4.74 601 0.17 45,044 12.70 354,587

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c Gross ran as an independent with the nomination of the Democratic Party, and was listed on the ballot as the Democratic nominee.[1]
  2. ^ Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
  3. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  5. ^ Includes "Refused"
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Gross' campaign.
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC, which has supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period.
  4. ^ Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References

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  1. ^ a b "Gross announces candidacy for Alaska US Senate seat". Associated Press. June 2, 2019.
  2. ^ Taylor, Jessica (June 12, 2020). "Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
  3. ^ "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. Archived from the original on December 23, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
  4. ^ Burns, Katelyn (October 22, 2020). "Al Gross is hoping to ride Alaska's independent streak to the Senate". Vox. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
  5. ^ Nat Herz [@Nat_Herz] (October 18, 2020). "New Alaska poll by Patinkin Research Strategies (not sure who paid but they are doing work for Yes on 2 in AK) has Al Gross up 47–46 and Trump up 49–46 Unclear how exactly they included 3rd party candidates, which may account for difference bw this+recent NYT poll. #AKleg #AKsen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  6. ^ "SULLIVAN, DAN – Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
  7. ^ McCue, Dan (May 1, 2020). "Center for Politics Adds Alaska to Senate Battleground Map". TheWell News. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  8. ^ a b c d e "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. June 5, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  9. ^ a b "President Trump endorses Sullivan re-election as US senator for Alaska". KTUU. December 18, 2019. Retrieved December 30, 2019.
  10. ^ a b "Mark Levin Audio Rewind – 10/20/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  11. ^ a b "Alaska Secretary of State's office: Election Summary Report – Official Results" (PDF).
  12. ^ Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018). "Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker". Anchorage Daily News.
  13. ^ "Alaska – Senate". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  14. ^ "John Wayne Howe, Alaskan Independence Party, runs for U.S. Senate". KTVF News. July 6, 2020.
  15. ^ a b "AK-Sen: Pete Buttigieg Jumps In To Help Dr. Al Gross (I) Take Away Moscow Mitch's Majority". Daily Kos.
  16. ^ a b c d "Humanity Forward Candidate Endorsements". Humanity Forward. Archived from the original on June 28, 2020. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  17. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates — 314actionfund". 314 Action. Archived from the original on April 4, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2019.
  18. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates- 2019 Anchorage Municipal Elections". Archived from the original on September 19, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
  19. ^ a b Quinn, Steve (October 11, 2019). "Alaska Democratic Party backs Gross for US Senate". KTVA. Archived from the original on October 14, 2019. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
  20. ^ a b "DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race". DSCC. December 3, 2019.
  21. ^ a b Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
  22. ^ a b "Al Gross (I, AK Sen)". J Street PAC. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  23. ^ a b "2020 Endorsements". Archived from the original on July 26, 2020. Retrieved July 26, 2020.
  24. ^ a b "Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project". Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project. July 29, 2020.
  25. ^ a b "AAOS Now October 2019: OrthoPAC Endorses AAOS Member Al Gross, MD, for U.S. Senate". www.aaos.org.
  26. ^ a b "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Archived from the original on April 12, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2020.
  27. ^ a b "Communications Workers of America Endorses Al Gross (AK) for US Senate". Communications Workers of America. June 11, 2020.
  28. ^ a b "Alaska". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  29. ^ a b c "November 3, 2020 General Election Candidate List". www.elections.alaska.gov. October 29, 2020. Archived from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
  30. ^ Maguire, Sean (August 14, 2020). "Meet Alaska's candidates for the U.S. Senate ahead of the Aug. 18 primaries". KTUU. Retrieved August 21, 2020.
  31. ^ Downing, Suzanne (May 11, 2019). "Sen. Sullivan has his first challenger: a Bernie supporter". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  32. ^ "Identification Number: C00705293" (PDF). FEC. May 29, 2019. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  33. ^ Ruskin, Liz (November 25, 2020). "Trump Administration Rejects Pebble Mine Project In Alaska". NPR. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  34. ^ Laine, Welch (June 30, 2020). "Alaska salmon: Bristol Bay opens with Pebble Mine decision pending". National Fisherman. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  35. ^ DeMarban, Alex (August 24, 2020). "Pebble mine would cause 'significant degradation' in Bristol Bay region and can't be permitted as proposed, Trump administration says". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  36. ^ DeMarban, Alex (September 22, 2020). "In recordings, Pebble executives discuss influence with Gov. Mike Dunleavy and one day expanding the mine". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  37. ^ DeMarban, Alex; Wieber, Aubrey (September 25, 2020). "Sen. Sullivan says 'No Pebble mine' following release of secretly recorded videos of company executives and criticism by Gross". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  38. ^ Wieber, Aubrey (October 11, 2020). "Sullivan and Gross battled it out on fisheries, Pebble Mine and Outside money in debut U.S. Senate debate". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  39. ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  40. ^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
  41. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  42. ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  43. ^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  44. ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  45. ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
  46. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
  47. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  48. ^ Senator Murkowski: More Than Ever
  49. ^ Sweeney, Tara (October 25, 2020). "Sullivan has been a champion for rural Alaska". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
  50. ^ "BSNC Endorses Dan Sullivan for United States Senate". Bering Straits. August 18, 2020.
  51. ^ "PAEC Issues First Endorsements in 2020 General Election". Calista Corporation. Archived from the original on September 21, 2020. Retrieved August 23, 2020.
  52. ^ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Dan Sullivan for U.S. Senate Representing Alaska". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. July 20, 2020.
  53. ^ "Press Release: International Union of Operating Engineers Endorses Senator Dan Sullivan for Re-election – Dan Sullivan for Alaska". dansullivanforalaska.com. Archived from the original on August 9, 2020. Retrieved August 23, 2020.
  54. ^ Anchorage Daily News editorial board (October 31, 2020). "Sen. Dan Sullivan is best poised to represent Alaska's interests". Anchorage Daily News.
  55. ^ Buxton, Matt (August 12, 2020). "Before joining Democratic ticket, Kamala Harris endorsed Al Gross for U.S. Senate". The Midnight Sun.
  56. ^ "Home – AL GROSS – FIGHTING TO FLIP ALASKA BLUE". Archived from the original on December 5, 2020. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  57. ^ Knowles, Tony (October 19, 2020). "Dr. Al Gross: Independent for U.S. Senator". Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman.
  58. ^ "DUH/PEP website". duh4all.org.
  59. ^ "Our Endorsements". DMFI PAC.
  60. ^ "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate". nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.
  61. ^ "PACE Recommendations". NEA-Alaska. Archived from the original on November 1, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
  62. ^ Gravis Marketing
  63. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  64. ^ Change Research (I)
  65. ^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
  66. ^ a b Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)
  67. ^ Patinkin Research Strategies
  68. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  69. ^ Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)
  70. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  71. ^ Public Policy Polling
  72. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  73. ^ a b Patinkin Research Strategies
  74. ^ "2020 General Election – Election Summary Report – Official Results" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
  75. ^ "Alaska Senate Election Results 2020". National Election Pool. NBC News. March 31, 2021. Retrieved January 23, 2022.

Further reading

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[edit]

Official campaign websites

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