Will Kamala Harris win back Arab and Muslim voters in Michigan?

Dearborn, Michigan - Can a community in continuous grief put their faith in a new ticket that hasn't offered a fundamental change in its support for Israel's war on Gaza?

This is the question many voters in the US with ties to the region are grappling with as they look towards the presidential election in November.

"We have been approached by both parties. They are trying to see what our community is looking for. Basically, they're trying to see how they can get our votes. They're trying to take advantage of the situation," Alaa Hussein Ali, an urgent care doctor who works near Dearborn, tells The New Arab, as both campaigns make their way through America's swing states this week.

Ali, who grew up in Gaza and who has lost more than a hundred family members from Israeli airstrikes in the past 10 months, is one of many voters who will not commit to a presidential candidate until he gets reassurance that US policy towards Israel will change drastically.

In 2020, he voted for Joe Biden, enthusiastically bringing his family with him to the polls, after four years of Donald Trump's exclusionary rhetoric and policies against Muslims. 

Nearly four years later, as someone who had never been particularly politically minded, he found himself compelled to join the Abandon Biden movement and uncommitted voters who saw this as their best way to put pressure on the US administration. 

With Biden now out of the race, Vice President Kamala Harris and her new running mate Tim Walz have injected new energy into a party that had been falling in the polls to the point that their loss seemed inevitable until less than a month ago.

Pro-Palestinian activists: Canaries in the coal mine for Biden?

Joe Biden's age-related decline was arguably the main reason for him dropping out of the race. However, not far behind that were months of protests led by pro-Palestinian activists, joined by Jewish allies and other communities, youths, labour unions, and LGBTQ+ groups, against the US administration's support of Israel's war in Gaza, which has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians since October.

Though many from the Democratic Party establishment raised concerns over the possibility that these activists could derail the race for Biden, those advocating for his replacement argued that the party needed a stronger candidate. 

The same went for the vice presidential pick, with many activists pushing for the running mate to be Minnesota Governor Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who was involved in a sexual harassment cover-up at his office and who has spoken disparagingly of Palestinians on multiple occasions.

In both cases, many activists are feeling vindicated, given the sharp rise in popularity of the new ticket, particularly in the prized Rustbelt, where voters understand the heavy weight of their votes.

"We feel like we were one of the major factors in Biden leaving [the presidential race]. I think we were also a factor in compelling Harris to not choose Shapiro for VP, with his positions on Israel and the protesters," Imad Hamad, executive director of the Dearborn-based American Human Rights Council, told The New Arab.

The importance of southeastern Michigan

The area of southeastern Michigan, including the Arab cultural hub of Dearborn, has long been an important stop on the campaign trail. It is home to the "big three" automakers, a quintessentially American industry that has allowed generations of families to earn high wages through manual labour.

With the decline of the auto industry and for many the American dream in the 1970s, reaching a reckoning with the 2008 financial crisis, many fled the Rustbelt cities for the suburbs and in some cases left the region entirely in search of better opportunities.

During that period, the Rustbelt saw an overall steady decline in its population. Meanwhile, historic Arab and Muslim communities in the area saw steady growth, propelled by unrest in the Middle East. With their steady migration, they were able to bring life to multiple post-industrial towns that might otherwise have faced much harder times.

Though many became pillars of their communities, it wasn't until less than a decade ago that the community would see prominent political representation. In 2021, the Arab-majority cities of Dearborn and Hamtramck saw their first Arab mayors elected. 

For years, Arab and Muslim voters in Michigan, particularly new immigrants, were among the lowest-turnout voters in the US. That changed significantly around six years ago when grassroots organising culminated in the election of Rashida Tlaib, the first Palestinian Muslim woman voted to the US Congress, who has described herself as a proud daughter of the United Auto Workers.

Ever since her 2018 election, her presence on the ticket has driven up voter turnout in state and national elections, helping Biden win back the state for Democrats in 2020. 

This year is different. After 10 months of daily Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, it is unclear what voters will do. What is clear is that there is a strong craving for authentic candidates who will listen to them.

Losing trust in a detached political system

For Ali, who has three medical clinics near Dearborn, it is difficult to regain trust in a system that has played a key role in killing and wounding more than a hundred members of his family.

Ali left Gaza City as a young man to pursue a career in medicine. He arrived in the US in 2001 shortly after 9/11, a time of rampant hate crime and mass government surveillance, primarily of Muslims. However, he says this is the most difficult period he has experienced in the US. 

"I lost my brother. He didn't even make it to his thirties, and he left a pregnant wife and three very young children. I've lost 17 immediate cousins. And I've lost 110 members of my extended family. But we always say alhamdulila, thank God for everything," he tells TNA at his clinic.

Speaking with TNA later on the phone, he shared that his family has been displaced nine times, his cousin's son had recently died under the rubble, and they were having trouble accessing basic medicine.

Since October, when Israel's assault on Gaza began, he and others in the community have been trying to reach the Biden administration to urge him not to support Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

"We told him we are proud American citizens and we care about this country, and the way you're leading this country is leading it to catastrophe," he recalls of his attempts to appeal to the Biden administration prior to him dropping out of the race. By that time, he and many others in the community were determined to make him a one-term president.

"The Arab and Muslim communities here feel that they're insignificant," he says, expressing a similar sentiment as many others who have felt despair in the Rustbelt, though for very different reasons. 

Though white, rural working-class Americans have a reputation for racism, something Ali acknowledges he has sometimes had to get past when first meeting them, once they get acquainted, he has found kindness and empathy.

"Most of my patients are Trump supporters. And I've always worn this since the beginning of the war," he says, pointing to a Palestinian bracelet on his wrist. "My patients see that, and they're sympathetic and supportive. It's just the geographic location they're in. They're the nicest people ever. Almost every day I get gifts from them."

He has found the political establishment, by contrast, to be divisive, pitting regular people against one another by exploiting their perceived differences. 

A new day for American democracy?

Even with new names on the Democratic ticket, many could find it difficult to get on board with a presidential candidate who is part of the current administration, though many others seem to be willing to give the new Democratic ticket a chance. 

This week, as Harris and Walz make their way through key swing states, including Michigan, Arab and Muslim community leaders reached out to meet with them (in addition to the general community outreach both campaigns have already initiated). They are still awaiting a response. It is a marked shift from their refusal to meet with Biden following the outbreak of the war in Gaza.

On Tuesday, Michigan held its congressional primary, with Tlaib winning as the only uncontested candidate, while other races on the ballot were also predictable. Voter turnout this week was understandably low, making it difficult to predict what will happen in November.

Regardless of the reason for the low turnout, Hamad, who always encourages political participation, is sympathetic. 

"I think people who boycotted are exhausted. They really believe that participation is not going to lead to any change. I talked to so many people who did not participate, including family members. They said: Why should I bother?" he says. 

"Before, people would give excuses for not voting. This time, they say it bluntly. They say they don't trust the system anymore. They say don't trust democracy. The direction is known. Regardless of who you vote for, the outcome is the same," he says he was told by those who stayed home from the polls

James Zogby, a veteran pollster and president of the Arab American Institute, while sympathetic to those who are frustrated with the system, is urging them to be politically engaged. 

"This is the time for deeper engagement, not boycott or anger. That doesn't make you more empowered. We've struggled for years to make Arabs more heard, not to disempower themselves. We don't have the luxury of being angry and only venting anger. That's not going to help us advance the cause," he tells TNA.

"The political process is broken, there's no question about it," he says. " But given the sorry state of affairs in the region, we need more - not less - engagement."

Brooke Anderson is The New Arab's correspondent in Washington DC, covering US and international politics, business, and culture.

Follow her on Twitter: @Brookethenews