The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
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Although a Southern Bible Belt state, North Carolina has been competitive since the late 2000s – a trend primarily attributed to population growth – as the state has been narrowly decided in every presidential election by less than a 4% margin since 2008, when Barack Obama very narrowly carried the state and became the only Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia in 1976. However, Republicans have won every single federal statewide race in North Carolina since 2010. It flipped back into the GOP column in 2012 (the only one of the last four presidential elections where the winner won over 50% of the state's vote) and has been narrowly won by Republican nominee Donald Trump in the past two cycles.
It was the closest Republican state victory in 2012 and 2020, even as polls indicated a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in the latter. However, at the gubernatorial level, incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper has won both terms, and an upcoming race for a new governor coinciding with the presidential election is expected to be competitive. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina is expected to be targeted by both parties in 2024, with major news organizations marking the state as a tossup or slightly leaning towards the Republican candidate Donald Trump.[2] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot.[3] Incumbent president Biden was initially poised to run for re-election, but withdrew on July 21 and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris. Throughout 2024, Trump won every poll in North Carolina against Biden, but his lead in the state has diminished since Harris was nominated to lead the Democratic ticket, with most polls within the margin of error in either direction.
Events and rule changes
editVoters must now show a voter ID at the polls and provide a copy of their ID with their mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots received after election day also will not be counted.[4] There will also be more partisan poll-watchers.[5] The laws are similar to others passed in Republican-controlled states which Democrats have criticized as voter suppression.[4][5] Common Cause North Carolina and the League of Women Voters of North Carolina have been educating voters on the new rules.[4]
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was granted the status of presidential candidate in July 2024 for North Carolina after state authorities recognised the political party he founded, 'We the People', which allowed Kennedy to qualify using 13,757 signatures, instead of the 82,542 signatures required for a candidate with no party.[6][7] The North Carolina Democratic Party filed a lawsuit alleging that Kennedy was improperly using his party to avoid higher qualification requirements, but this lawsuit against Kennedy was unsuccessful.[7] On August 27, Kennedy asked state authorities to remove him as a presidential candidate in North Carolina; on August 28, the We the People party officially made the same request to state authorities; both requests were initially denied due to ballots already being printed and upcoming deadlines, with North Carolina law mandating that absentee ballots should be mailed by authorities from September 6.[8][9]
Kennedy responded by launching a lawsuit demanding to be removed as a presidential candidate in North Carolina, with Kennedy previously saying that "by staying on the ballot in the battleground states, I would likely hand the election over to the Democrats", while Kennedy remained as a presidential candidate in non-battleground states and indicated that his lawsuit to become a presidential candidate in New York would continue.[7][9][10] While Wake County Superior Court ruled against Kennedy, he appealed and the North Carolina Court of Appeals ruled for Kennedy on September 6, ordering for authorities to reprint ballots without Kennedy as a candidate.[10] The North Carolina Supreme Court affirmed the Court of Appeals' decision on September 9, so authorities went to reprint the ballots, which delayed the mailing date from the originally stipulated September 6 date to become September 20 for military and overseas voters and September 24 for other voters.[11]
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
editIn North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures.[12] The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate,[13] and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023 deadline.[14]
The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges.[13][15] Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves.[13]
In North Carolina, the "No Preference" option will appear on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. In 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option.[16]
The North Carolina Democratic presidential primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 609,680 | 87.27% | 113 | ||
| No Preference | 88,900 | 12.73% | |||
| Total: | 698,580 | 100.00% | 132 | 132 | |
Republican primary
editThe North Carolina Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 793,978 | 73.84% | 62 | 62 | |
| Nikki Haley | 250,838 | 23.33% | 12 | 12 | |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 14,740 | 1.37% | |||
| No Preference | 7,448 | 0.69% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 3,418 | 0.32% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 3,166 | 0.29% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 916 | 0.09% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 727 | 0.07% | |||
| Total: | 1,075,231 | 100.00% | 74 | 74 | |
Libertarian primary
editThe North Carolina Libertarian primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Ten candidates were presented on the ballot.[19]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| None of the Above | 2,058 | 40.5% |
| Chase Oliver | 676 | 13.3% |
| Jacob Hornberger | 357 | 7.0% |
| Joshua Smith | 354 | 7.0% |
| Michael Rectenwald | 195 | 3.8% |
| Charles Ballay | 183 | 3.6% |
| Lars Mapstead | 176 | 3.5% |
| Mike ter Maat | 137 | 2.7% |
| Other[a] | 946 | 18.7% |
| Total: | 5,082 | 100.0% |
| Source:[20] | ||
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[21] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Tossup | August 20, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[23] | Tossup | September 12, 2024 |
| CNN[24] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| The Economist[25] | Tossup | September 10, 2024 |
| 538[26] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| CNalysis[27] | Tossup | September 15, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[28] | Tossup | August 29, 2024 |
| RCP[29] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
Polling
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | August 26 – September 18, 2024 | September 19, 2024 | 47.6% | 47.5% | 4.9% | Trump +0.1% |
| 270ToWin | September 9–19, 2024 | September 19, 2024 | 47.6% | 47.0% | 5.4% | Trump +0.6% |
| RacetotheWH | through September 18, 2024 | September 18, 2024 | 47.8% | 48.1% | 4.2% | Harris +0.3% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through September 19, 2024 | September 19, 2024 | 48.4% | 47.9% | 3.7% | Trump +0.5% |
| Silver Bulletin | through September 20, 2024 | September 20, 2024 | 48.0% | 47.9% | 4.1% | Trump +0.1% |
| 538 | through September 18, 2024 | September 21, 2024 | 47.5% | 47.3% | 5.2% | Trump +0.2% |
| Average | 47.8% | 47.6% | 4.6% | Trump +0.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[30] | September 15–18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[d] |
| 49% | 50%[e] | 1%[d] | ||||
| Victory Insights (R)[31] | September 16−18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[32] | September 9−18, 2024 | 1,314 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| TIPP Insights[33][A] | September 11–13, 2024 | 973 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[34] | September 11–12, 2024 | 1,094 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 46% | 6%[f] |
| Quantus Insights (R)[35][B] | September 11–12, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 47% | 5%[g] |
| 50% | 48% | 2%[h] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[36] | September 4–8, 2024 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 50% | 3%[i] |
| Morning Consult[32] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,369 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| SurveyUSA[37][C] | September 4–7, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[38] | September 5–6, 2024 | 692 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 46% | 7%[j] |
| 619 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 5%[k] | |||
| Patriot Polling[39] | September 1–3, 2024 | 804 (RV) | – | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[40] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 3%[k] |
| ActiVote[41] | August 6–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Emerson College[42] | August 25–28, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| 50%[e] | 49% | 1%[d] | ||||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[43][D] | August 26–27, 2024 | 612 (LV) | – | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[44] | August 23–26, 2024 | 645 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| 700 (RV) | 47% | 49% | 4% | |||
| Fox News[45] | August 23–26, 2024 | 999 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | 1%[l] |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| High Point University/SurveyUSA[46] | August 19–21, 2024 | 1,053 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| 941 (LV) | 47% | 47% | 6% | |||
| Spry Strategies (R)[47][E] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
| Focaldata[48] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 50% | – |
| New York Times/Siena College[49] | August 9–14, 2024 | 655 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| 655 (LV) | 47% | 49% | 4% | |||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[50] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Navigator Research (D)[51] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[52] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[53] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[54] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Emerson College[55] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [m] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through September 16, 2024 | September 20, 2024 | 46.4% | 46.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | — | 5.8% | Harris +0.3% |
| RealClearPolling | August 23 – September 13, 2024 | September 13, 2024 | 47.2% | 47.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 2.3% | Trump +0.2% |
| 270toWin | August 29 – September 19, 2024 | September 19, 2024 | 46.8% | 46.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 5.0% | Harris +0.6% |
| Average | 46.8% | 46.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 4.1% | Harris +0.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[56][F] | September 15–16, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 6%[n] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[57] | September 6–9, 2024 | 495 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University[36] | September 4–8, 2024 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 49% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4%[d] |
| YouGov[58][G] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 46% | 0% | 1% | – | 6%[l] |
| East Carolina University[59] | August 26–28, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[60] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[44] | August 23–26, 2024 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| 645 (LV) | 48% | 48% | – | 1% | 2% | 1% | |||
| Fox News[45] | August 23–26, 2024 | 999 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1%[l] |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies (R)[47][E] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 3% | – | 1% | – | 4% |
| Focaldata[48] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 47% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| 702 (RV) | 44% | 47% | 6% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | |||
| 702 (A) | 43% | 47% | 7% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[61] | August 12–15, 2024 | 601 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 2% | – | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[49] | August 9–14, 2024 | 655 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| 655 (LV) | 44% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | |||
| YouGov Blue (D)[62][H] | August 5–9, 2024 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Navigator Research (D)[51] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[52] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 44% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | – | 5% |
| Cygnal (R)[63][F] | August 4–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | 4% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[64] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 714 (LV) | – | 44% | 41% | 4% | – | 0% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[53] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 5% | – | 0% | 4% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[65] | July 22–24, 2024 | 586 (LV) | – | 46% | 43% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 7% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[66][I] | July 17–20, 2024 | 573 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 44% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R)[35][B] | September 11–12, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 42% | 9%[g] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[66][I] | July 17–20, 2024 | 573 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Emerson College[67][J] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[68][K] | July 1–8, 2024 | 610 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[69] | July 1–5, 2024 | 696 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[70] | June 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| East Carolina University[71] | May 31 – June 3, 2024 | 1,332 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[72][A] | May 29 – June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[73][L] | May 26–27, 2024 | 1,053 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 43% | 6% |
| Change Research (D)[74][M] | May 13–18, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Prime Group[75][N] | May 9–16, 2024 | 472 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[76] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[77] | May 6–13, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| High Point University[78] | May 5–9, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Emerson College[79] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| 52%[e] | 48% | – | ||||
| John Zogby Strategies[80][O] | April 13–21, 2024 | 641 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[81] | April 8–15, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon[82] | April 9–13, 2024 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[83] | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| High Point University[84] | March 22–30, 2024 | 829(RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 42% | 14% |
| Wall Street Journal[85] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Marist College[86] | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[87] | March 8–12, 2024 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| SurveyUSA[88][C] | March 3–9, 2024 | 598 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Cygnal (R)[89][P] | March 6–7, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] | February 12–20, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
| Emerson College[55] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Fox News[91] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Meredith College[92] | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 39% | 17% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[93] | January 16–21, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[94] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[95] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
| Meredith College[96] | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 40% | 22%[o] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[97] | October 5–10, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[98] | October 7–9, 2023 | 736 (LV) | – | 43% | 38% | 20% |
| Change Research (D)[99][M] | September 1–5, 2023 | 914 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Prime Group[100][N] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 54% | 46% | – |
| 45% | 37% | 18%[p] | ||||
| Opinion Diagnostics[101] | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 40% | 18% |
| Cygnal (R)[102][P] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Differentiators (R)[103][Q] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Emerson College[104] | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[105][M] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA[106][C] | September 28 – October 2, 2022 | 918 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Emerson College[107] | September 15–16, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| East Carolina University[108] | September 7–10, 2022 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[109] | August 4–6, 2022 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 39% | 17% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[110][R] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| East Carolina University[111] | May 19–20, 2022 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 37% | 16% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[66][I] | July 17–20, 2024 | 573 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 42% | 2% | – | 2% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[112] | July 16–18, 2024 | 461 (LV) | – | 45% | 39% | 5% | – | 1% | 10%[q] |
| Emerson College[67][J] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7%[q] |
| YouGov[113][G] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 40% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[114] | July 8–10, 2024 | 420 (LV) | – | 44% | 42% | 4% | – | 1% | 9%[r] |
| Echelon Insights[68][K] | July 1–8, 2024 | 610 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 6%[q] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[69] | July 1–5, 2024 | 696 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 9%[q] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[115] | June 8–11, 2024 | 534 (LV) | – | 43% | 40% | 7% | – | 1% | 9%[r] |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[72][A] | May 29 – June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 10% |
| Prime Group[75][N] | May 9–16, 2024 | 472 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 1% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[76] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 38% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[77] | May 6–13, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
| Emerson College[79] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Meeting Street Insights (R)[116][S] | April 25–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 35% | 11% | – | 2% | 12%[s] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[81] | April 8–15, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[83] | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | 12% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Wall Street Journal[85] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 34% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[87] | March 8–12, 2024 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] | February 12–20, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 45% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College[55] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| East Carolina University[117] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 44% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Fox News[91] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[118] | January 16–21, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[119] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies (R)[70] | June 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 37% | 8% | 10% |
| Change Research (D)[74][M] | May 13–18, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 38% | 11% | 10% |
| Cygnal (R)[120][F] | May 4–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 38% | 9% | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[121] | May 2–4, 2024 | 700 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 7% | 12% |
| Meredith College[122] | April 11–17, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 39% | 9% | 11% |
| Cygnal (R)[123][P] | April 7–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 39% | 7% | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124] | March 14–17, 2024 | 642 (LV) | – | 43% | 39% | 8% | 10% |
| Marist College[86] | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 43% | 11% | – |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[125][T] | January 30 – February 4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 32% | 16% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[126] | December 28–30, 2023 | 1,220 (LV) | – | 37% | 33% | 11% | 19% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[127] | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 44% | 35% | 8% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[98] | October 7–9, 2023 | 736 (LV) | – | 41% | 38% | 9% | 14% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[128] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 33% | 9% | 2% | 14% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[80][O] | April 13–21, 2024 | 641 (LV) | – | 45% | 39% | 16% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[80][O] | April 13–21, 2024 | 641 (LV) | – | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Donald Trump vs. Roy Cooper vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Roy Cooper Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[66][I] | July 17–20, 2024 | 573 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 41% | 3% | 2% | 9% |
Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[55] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 34% | 17% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[91] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina University[117] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 32% | 40% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 16% |
| Fox News[91] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 31% | 33% | 19% | 2% | 2% | 13% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[127] | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 36% | 33% | 12% | 18% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion Diagnostics[101] | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 40% | 13% |
| Cygnal (R)[102][P] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Differentiators (R)[103][Q] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[127] | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 38% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 12% |
Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[102][P] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ 464 votes (9.1%) for David (TrimeTaveler) Dunlap, 320 votes (6.3%) for Beau Lindsey, 162 votes (3.2%) for Josh "Toad" Anderson.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b c With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Other" with 2%
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 3%
- ^ a b "Another candidate" with 2%
- ^ a b c "Other" with 1%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Randall Terry (C) with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 17%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ a b c d Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- ^ Charles Ballay (L) with 2%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
- ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal
- ^ a b Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice
- ^ Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NC Values Coalition, a sponsor of the Republican Party
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
- ^ Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers
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