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2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

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2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
← 2012 February 1, 2016 (2016-02-01) 2020 →
NH →
30 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention
 
Candidate Ted Cruz Donald Trump Marco Rubio
Home state Texas New York Florida
Delegate count 8 7 7
Popular vote 51,666 45,429 43,228
Percentage 27.6% 24.3% 23.1%
 
Candidate Ben Carson Rand Paul Jeb Bush
Home state Virginia Kentucky Florida
Delegate count 3 1 1
Popular vote 17,394 8,481 5,238
Percentage 9.3% 4.5% 2.8%
 
Candidate Carly Fiorina John Kasich Mike Huckabee
Home state Virginia Ohio Arkansas
Delegate count 1 1 1
Popular vote 3,485 3,474 3,345
Percentage 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%
Results by county
  Tie

The 2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on February 1 in the U.S. state of Iowa, traditionally marking the Republican Party's first nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

The Democratic Party held its own Iowa caucuses on the same day.

Ted Cruz was able to defeat Donald Trump in the Iowa Caucus by winning over Evangelical caucus-goers;[1] Cruz won 51,666 caucus votes or 27.6%, giving him a net gain of one delegate over Trump. Cruz visited all 99 counties of Iowa and held small events.[2] Cruz outperformed his polling average, which predicted a narrow Trump victory in the caucus.

Following poor performances in the caucuses, Rand Paul,[3] Mike Huckabee[4] and Rick Santorum[5] suspended their campaigns.

Procedure

[edit]

According to the Republican Party of Iowa's bylaws, if more than one candidate is nominated at the Republican National Convention, all of Iowa's delegates are bound to vote "proportionally in accordance with the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses" on the first ballot, even if the candidate has withdrawn from the race.[6] The ballot is a blank piece of paper, and the candidates that voters may vote for in the non-binding preference poll included the following:

Caucus Operations

[edit]

The caucuses began at 7:00 PM local time across 1,681 precincts statewide. After the selection of caucus chairs and secretaries, campaign representatives made speeches supporting their candidates before voters cast their preferences on paper ballots. The 2016 Republican caucuses set a new turnout record with 186,932 participants, significantly higher than the 121,503 who participated in 2012.[7]

Campaign

[edit]

The Iowa caucuses required extensive ground organization and retail politics from the candidates. Ted Cruz's campaign pursued a traditional grassroots approach, completing the "Full Grassley" by visiting all 99 counties in Iowa while building relationships with evangelical and conservative leaders.[8] His campaign utilized sophisticated data analytics and microtargeting to identify and turn out likely supporters.

Donald Trump opted for a less conventional strategy, focusing on large rallies and earned media coverage that drew thousands of attendees across the state. However, questions persisted about whether his unorthodox approach could successfully convert rally attendance into caucus participation from first-time voters.[9]

Marco Rubio positioned himself as an electable conservative alternative, particularly appealing to suburban voters and party regulars. His campaign emphasized his youth and vision for a "New American Century," gaining momentum in the final weeks before the caucuses.[10]

Forums and debates

[edit]

November 20, 2015 – Des Moines, Iowa The Presidential Family Forum was held in the Community Choice Credit Union Convention Center in Des Moines, Iowa. Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum attended the forum hosted by evangelical Christian advocacy group The Family Leader. It was hosted by politician and political activist Bob Vander Plaats and moderated by political consultant and pollster Frank Luntz.[11] Protesters interrupted the beginning of the event and were removed by police.[12]

January 28, 2016 – Des Moines, Iowa The seventh debate was the second debate to air on Fox News. As in Fox's first debate, the moderators were Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly, and Chris Wallace.[13] This was the last debate before actual voting began with the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016.[14][15] Due to personality conflicts with Fox News, Donald Trump opted out of the debate.[16]

Endorsements

[edit]

Cruz secured several influential endorsements that proved crucial to his victory, including Congressman Steve King, who represented Iowa's 4th congressional district, and Bob Vander Plaats, president of The Family Leader, a prominent evangelical organization.[17][18]

Trump notably received limited support from Iowa Republican officials, though he led most pre-caucus polls. Meanwhile, Rubio gained important momentum when he received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register and other newspapers in the closing weeks of the campaign.[19]

Jeb Bush
Former executive branch officials
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
Ben Carson
State Representatives
Chris Christie
State Representatives
Ted Cruz
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
Notable individuals
Carly Fiorina
State Senators
State Representatives
John Kasich
State Representatives
Mike Huckabee
State Representatives
Marco Rubio
State Senators
State Representatives
Newspapers
Rick Santorum
State Representatives
Donald Trump
State Senators

Withdrawn candidates

[edit]
Lindsey Graham (Withdrawn)
State Senators
Bobby Jindal (Withdrawn)
State Representatives
Rick Perry (Withdrawn)
State Representatives
Scott Walker (Withdrawn)
State Senators
State Representatives

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll

aggregation

Dates

administered

Dates

updated

Marco Rubio
Republican 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Ted Cruz
Republican 		Margin
RealClearPolitics until February 1, 2016 February 1, 2016 16.9% 28.6% 23.9% Trump +4.7
FiveThirtyEight until February 1, 2016 February 1, 2016 18.1% 25.6% 24.3% Trump +1.3
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Caucus results February 1, 2016 Ted Cruz
27.64% 		Donald Trump
24.30% 		Marco Rubio
23.12% 		Ben Carson 9.30%, Rand Paul 4.54%, Jeb Bush 2.80%, Carly Fiorina 1.86%, John Kasich 1.86%, Mike Huckabee 1.79%, Chris Christie 1.76%, Rick Santorum 0.95%, Jim Gilmore 0.01%, Other 0.06%
Emerson College[82]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 298

January 29–31, 2016 Donald Trump
27.3% 		Ted Cruz
25.6% 		Marco Rubio
21.6% 		Mike Huckabee 4.7%, Jeb Bush 3.8%, John Kasich 3.8%, Rand Paul 3.4%, Ben Carson 3.4%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Carly Fiorina 1.7%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, Undecided 1%
Quinnipiac University[83]

Margin of error: ± 3.3% Sample size: 890

January 25–31, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		Ted Cruz
24% 		Marco Rubio
17% 		Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Not decided 3%
Opinion Savvy[84]

Margin of error: ± 3.2%
Sample size: 887

January 29–30, 2016 Donald Trump
20.1% 		Ted Cruz
19.4% 		Marco Rubio
18.6% 		Ben Carson 9.0%, Rand Paul 8.6%, Jeb Bush 4.9%, Mike Huckabee 4.4%, John Kasich 4.0%, Carly Fiorina 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.0%, Rick Santorum 2.1%, Undecided 2.2%
Des Moines Register/
Bloomberg/Selzer[85]

Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 602

January 26–29, 2016 Donald Trump
28% 		Ted Cruz
23% 		Marco Rubio
15% 		Ben Carson 10%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Jeb Bush 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jim Gimore 0%, Undecided 2%, Uncommitted 3%
Public Policy Polling[86]

Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 780

January 26–27, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		Ted Cruz
23% 		Marco Rubio
14% 		Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gimore 1%, Undecided 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[87]

Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 415

January 24–26, 2016 Donald Trump
32% 		Ted Cruz
25% 		Marco Rubio
18% 		Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Other 0%, Undecided 3%
Monmouth University[88]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

January 23–26, 2016 Donald Trump
30% 		Ted Cruz
23% 		Marco Rubio
16% 		Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 3%
ARG[89]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

January 21–24, 2016 Donald Trump
33% 		Ted Cruz
26% 		Marco Rubio
11% 		Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 1%, Undecided 5%
Quinnipiac University[90]

Margin of error: ± 3.8% Sample size: 651

January 18–24, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		Ted Cruz
29% 		Marco Rubio
13% 		Ben Carson 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Not decided 2%
ISU/WHO-HD[91]

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 283

January 5–22, 2016 Ted Cruz
25.8% 		Donald Trump
18.9% 		Ben Carson
13.4% 		Marco Rubio 12.3%, Rand Paul 6.9%, Jeb Bush 3.8%, Mike Huckabee 3.7%, Carly Fiorina 1.1%, Rick Santorum <1%, Chris Christie <1%, John Kasich <1%
Fox News[92]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 378

January 18–21, 2016 Donald Trump
34% 		Ted Cruz
23% 		Marco Rubio
12% 		Ben Carson 7%, Rand Paul 6%, Chris Christie 4%, Jeb Bush 4%, John Kasich 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 1%, Don't Know 2%
CBS/YouGov[93]

Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 492

January 18–21, 2016 Donald Trump
39% 		Ted Cruz
34% 		Marco Rubio
13% 		Ben Carson 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Jeb Bush 1%, John Kasich 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0%
Emerson College[94]

Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 271

January 18–20, 2016 Donald Trump
33.1% 		Ted Cruz
22.8% 		Marco Rubio
14.2% 		Ben Carson 9.1%, Chris Christie 5.4%, Jeb Bush 5.1%, John Kasich 2.9%, Rand Paul 2.7%, Carly Fiorina 2.1%, Mike Huckabee 1.7%, Undecided 1%
CNN/ORC[95]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 266

January 15–20, 2016 Donald Trump
37% 		Ted Cruz
26% 		Marco Rubio
14% 		Ben Carson 6%, Jeb Bush 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%
Monmouth College/KBUR/Douglas Fulmer & Associates[96]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 687

January 18–19, 2016 Ted Cruz
27% 		Donald Trump
25% 		Ben Carson
11% 		Marco Rubio 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Undecided 4%
Loras College[97]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

January 13–18, 2016 Donald Trump
26% 		Ted Cruz
25% 		Marco Rubio
13% 		Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, John Kasich 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecide 7%
Public Policy Polling[98]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 530

January 8–10, 2016 Donald Trump
28% 		Ted Cruz
26% 		Marco Rubio
13% 		Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, John Kasich 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 2%
DM Register/Bloomberg[99]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

January 7–10, 2016 Ted Cruz
25% 		Donald Trump
22% 		Marco Rubio
12% 		Ben Carson 11%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%
ARG[100]

Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600

January 6–10, 2016 Donald Trump
29% 		Ted Cruz
25% 		Marco Rubio
10% 		Ben Carson 8%, Chris Christie 6%, Rand Paul 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 5%
Quinnipiac University[101]

Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 602

January 5–10, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		Ted Cruz
29% 		Marco Rubio
15% 		Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Not decided 5%
Fox News[102]

Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 504

January 4–7, 2016 Ted Cruz
27% 		Donald Trump
23% 		Marco Rubio
15% 		Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[103]

Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 456

January 2–7, 2016 Ted Cruz
28% 		Donald Trump
24% 		Marco Rubio
13% 		Ben Carson 11%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Other 1%, Undecided 3%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 440

December 18–21, 2015 Donald Trump
31% 		Ted Cruz
31% 		Marco Rubio
9% 		Ben Carson 7%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, George Pataki 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Unsure 5%
CBS News/YouGov

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 1252

December 14–17, 2015 Ted Cruz
40% 		Donald Trump
31% 		Marco Rubio
12% 		Ben Carson 6%, Jeb Bush 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, No preference 0%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 522

December 10–13, 2015 Donald Trump
28% 		Ted Cruz
25% 		Marco Rubio
14% 		Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 1%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 3.3%
Sample size: 874

December 4–13, 2015 Donald Trump
28% 		Ted Cruz
27% 		Marco Rubio
14% 		Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, DK 3%
Loras College

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 499

December 7–10, 2015 Ted Cruz
29.7% 		Donald Trump
23.4% 		Ben Carson
10.8% 		Marco Rubio 10.6%, Jeb Bush 6.2%, Carly Fiorina 3.4%, Rand Paul 2.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.8%, John Kasich 1.0%, Rick Santorum 1.0%, Chris Christie 0.4%, Lindsey Graham 0.0%, Undecided 9.0%
Fox News

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 450

December 7–10, 2015 Ted Cruz
28% 		Donald Trump
26% 		Marco Rubio
13% 		Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Other 1%, DK 3%
DMR/Bloomberg

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

December 7–10, 2015 Ted Cruz
31% 		Donald Trump
21% 		Ben Carson
13% 		Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Uncommitted 3%, Undecided 4%
Monmouth University Archived 2015-12-10 at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 425

December 3–6, 2015 Ted Cruz
24% 		Donald Trump
19% 		Marco Rubio
17% 		Ben Carson 13%, Jeb Bush 6%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, John Kasich 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham <1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Undecided 4%
CNN/ORC

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 552

November 28-
December 6, 2015 		Donald Trump
33% 		Ted Cruz
20% 		Ben Carson
16% 		Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No one 1%, Someone else 1%, No opinion 1%
Quinnipiac University Archived 2015-11-25 at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 600

November 16–22, 2015 Donald Trump
25% 		Ted Cruz
23% 		Ben Carson
18% 		Marco Rubio 13%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, DK/NA 2%
CBS News/YouGov

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: ?

November 15–19, 2015 Donald Trump
30% 		Ted Cruz
21% 		Ben Carson
19% 		Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Chris Christie 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%
Iowa State University/WHO-HD

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 518

November 2–15, 2015 Ben Carson
27% 		Marco Rubio
17% 		Donald Trump
15% 		Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Chris Christie 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%
CNN/ ORC

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 548

October 29 – November 4, 2015 Donald Trump
25% 		Ben Carson
23% 		Marco Rubio
13% 		Ted Cruz 11%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No opinion 3%
Gravis Marketing/One America News Network

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 356

October 30 – November 2, 2015 Donald Trump
29.4% 		Ben Carson
22.4% 		Marco Rubio
18.0% 		Ted Cruz 8.5%, Jeb Bush 6.0%, Carly Fiorina 5.2%, John Kasich 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Rand Paul 1.8%, Bobby Jindal 1.5%, Mike Huckabee 1.1%, Rick Santorum 0.4%, Lindsey Graham 0.3%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 638

October 30 – November 1, 2015 Donald Trump
22% 		Ben Carson
21% 		Ted Cruz
14% 		Marco Rubio 10%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 1%
KBUR/Monmouth University

Margin of error: ± 3.37%
Sample size: 874

October 29–31, 2015 Ben Carson
27.5% 		Donald Trump
20.4% 		Ted Cruz
15.1% 		Marco Rubio 10.1%, Jeb Bush 9.0%, Carly Fiorina 4.1%, Lindsey Graham 0.2%, Mike Huckabee 1.7%, John Kasich 1.9%, Rand Paul 1.6%, Chris Christie 2.3%, Bobby Jindal 1.3%, Rick Santorum 0.7%, Jim Gilmore 0.3%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 3.8%
Monmouth University Archived 2015-10-27 at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

October 22–25, 2015 Ben Carson
32% 		Donald Trump
18% 		Ted Cruz
10% 		Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Undecided 5%
Loras College

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

October 19–22, 2015 Ben Carson
30.6% 		Donald Trump
18.6% 		Marco Rubio
10.0% 		Jeb Bush 6.8%, Ted Cruz 6.2%, Bobby Jindal 4.6%, Carly Fiorina 2.4%, Chris Christie 1.8%, Rand Paul 1.8%, John Kasich 1.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.2%, Rick Santorum 0.8%, Lindsey Graham 0.4%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 12.8%
CBS News/YouGov

Margin of error: ± 6.5%
Sample size: ?

October 15–22, 2015 Donald Trump
27% 		Ben Carson
27% 		Ted Cruz
12% 		Marco Rubio 9%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 3%
DMR/Bloomberg

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 401

October 16–21, 2015 Ben Carson
28% 		Donald Trump
19% 		Ted Cruz
10% 		Marco Rubio 9%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Not sure 7%, Uncommitted 3%
Quinnipiac University Archived 2015-10-23 at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 4.1%
Sample size: 574

October 14–20, 2015 Ben Carson
28% 		Donald Trump
20% 		Marco Rubio
13% 		Ted Cruz 10%, Rand Paul 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 3%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 3%
NBC/WSJ

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 431

October 2015 Donald Trump
24% 		Ben Carson
19% 		Carly Fiorina
8% 		Jeb Bush 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Chris Christie 4%, John Kasich 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki <1%, Jim Gilmore <1%, Undecided 7%
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 454

October 2, 2015 Donald Trump
18.8% 		Ben Carson
14.1% 		Ted Cruz
10.6% 		Carly Fiorina 9.7%, Marco Rubio 8.9%, Jeb Bush 6.9%, John Kasich 2.6%, Rand Paul 2.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.8%, Lindsey Graham 1.8%, Bobby Jindal 1.7%, Chris Christie 1.4%, Rick Santorum 1.3%, George Pataki 0.3%, Unsure 17.9%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 488

September 18–20, 2015 Donald Trump
24% 		Ben Carson
17% 		Carly Fiorina
13% 		Ted Cruz 8%, Marco Rubio 8%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Jeb Bush 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Undecided 3%
CBS News/YouGov

Margin of error: ± 5.7%
Sample size: 705

September 3–10, 2015 Donald Trump
29% 		Ben Carson
25% 		Ted Cruz
10% 		Marco Rubio 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Jeb Bush 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Rick Perry 0%, No preference 4%
Quinnipiac University Archived 2015-09-12 at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 3.0%
Sample size: 1038

August 27 – September 8, 2015 Donald Trump
27% 		Ben Carson
21% 		Ted Cruz
9% 		Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, John Kasich 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Scott Walker 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 4%
NBC News/Marist

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 390

August 26 – September 2, 2015 Donald Trump
29% 		Ben Carson
22% 		Jeb Bush
6% 		Carly Fiorina 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 8%
Gravis Marketing/One America

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 507

August 29–31, 2015 Donald Trump
31.7% 		Ben Carson
15.8% 		Ted Cruz
6.9% 		Marco Rubio 5.8%, Scott Walker 5.6%, Bobby Jindal 5.2%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Jeb Bush 4.1%, Mike Huckabee 2.6%, Chris Christie 2.0%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rand Paul 1.3%, Rick Perry 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Lindsey Graham 0.4%, George Pataki 0.1%, Undecided 10.9%
Monmouth University Archived 2015-09-02 at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 405

August 27–30, 2015 Donald Trump
23% 		Ben Carson
23% 		Carly Fiorina
10% 		Ted Cruz 9%, Scott Walker 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Perry 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Undecided 5%
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

August 23–26, 2015 Donald Trump
23% 		Ben Carson
18% 		Ted Cruz
8% 		Scott Walker 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Chris Christie 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Undecided 10%
CNN/ORC

Margin of error: ± 2%
Sample size: 2,014

August 7–11, 2015 Donald Trump
22% 		Ben Carson
14% 		Scott Walker
9% 		Ted Cruz 8%, Carly Fiorina 7%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Someone else 0%, No one 2%, No opinion 4%
NBC/Marist[permanent dead link]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 342

July 14–21, 2015 Scott Walker
19% 		Donald Trump
17% 		Jeb Bush
12% 		Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 14%
Quinnipiac University Archived 2015-07-01 at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 666

June 20–29, 2015 Scott Walker
18% 		Ben Carson
10% 		Donald Trump
10% 		Ted Cruz 9%, Rand Paul 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Marco Rubio 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Bobby Jindal 3%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki 0%, DK/NA 5%
Morning Consult

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 265

May 31 – June 8, 2015 Scott Walker
18% 		Jeb Bush
10% 		Mike Huckabee
10% 		Rand Paul 10%, Marco Rubio 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 5%, Donald Trump 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Don't know/No opinion/Refused 21%, Someone else 3%
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 364

May 28–29, 2015 Scott Walker
17% 		Marco Rubio
13% 		Ben Carson
12% 		Jeb Bush 10%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Unsure 15%
Des Moines Register

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 402

May 25–29, 2015 Scott Walker
17% 		Ben Carson
10% 		Rand Paul
10% 		Jeb Bush 9%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Donald Trump 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Uncommitted 4%, Not sure 7%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 667

April 25 – May 4, 2015 Scott Walker
21% 		Rand Paul
13% 		Marco Rubio
13% 		Ted Cruz 12%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Ben Carson 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Don't know/No answer 6%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 462

April 23–26, 2015 Scott Walker
23% 		Marco Rubio
13% 		Jeb Bush
12% 		Mike Huckabee 10%, Rand Paul 10%, Ted Cruz 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Undecided 8%
Loras College

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 509

April 21–23, 2015 Scott Walker
12.6% 		Marco Rubio
10% 		Jeb Bush
9.6% 		Mike Huckabee 8.6%, Ted Cruz 6.5%, Ben Carson 6.3%, Rand Paul 6.3%, Chris Christie 5.1%, Rick Santorum 3.5%, Donald Trump 3.1%, Rick Perry 2.6%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Undecided 22.8%
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 388

April 13, 2015 Jeb Bush
16% 		Scott Walker
13% 		Marco Rubio
12% 		Ben Carson 9%, Rand Paul 9%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 17%
Opinion Savvy

Margin of error: ± 4.16%
Sample size: 552

March 20, 2015 Scott Walker
29% 		Ben Carson
14% 		Jeb Bush
12% 		Mike Huckabee 11%, Ted Cruz 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Donald Trump 3%, Other/Undecided 10%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 623

February 16–23, 2015 Scott Walker
25% 		Rand Paul
13% 		Ben Carson
11% 		Mike Huckabee 11%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ted Cruz 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Chris Christie 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 0%, Unsure 9%
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 343

February 12–13, 2015 Scott Walker
24% 		Jeb Bush
10% 		Rand Paul
10% 		Chris Christie 9%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Rick Santorum 6%, Ben Carson 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Unsure 15%
NBC News/Marist

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 320

February 3–10, 2015 Mike Huckabee
17% 		Jeb Bush
16% 		Scott Walker
15% 		Chris Christie 9%, Rand Paul 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Ted Cruz 2%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Undecided 14%
Selzer & Co.

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 402

January 26–29, 2015 Scott Walker
15% 		Rand Paul
14% 		Mitt Romney
13% 		Mike Huckabee 10%, Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Marco Rubio 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Uncommitted 2%, Not sure 5%
Scott Walker
16% 		Rand Paul
15% 		Mike Huckabee
13% 		Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Uncommitted 3%, Not sure 5%
Loras College

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 316

January 21–26, 2015 Mitt Romney
13.7% 		Mike Huckabee
12.5% 		Ben Carson
10.5% 		Jeb Bush 9.9%, Scott Walker 8.3%, Rand Paul 6.7%, Ted Cruz 5.1%, Marco Rubio 4.2%, Chris Christie 3.8%, Rick Santorum 3.8%, Rick Perry 2.9%, Bobby Jindal 1.6%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 0.3% Undecided 14.7%
Mike Huckabee
14.4% 		Jeb Bush
13.1% 		Ben Carson
12.8% 		Scott Walker 9.9%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 5.4%, Ted Cruz 5.4%, Marco Rubio 4.2%, Rick Santorum 3.8%, Rick Perry 3.2%, Bobby Jindal 1.6%, Carly Fiorina 1.3%, John Kasich 1.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.6% Undecided 16%
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 3%
Sample size: 404

January 5–7, 2015 Mitt Romney
21% 		Jeb Bush
14% 		Scott Walker
10% 		Mike Huckabee 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Paul Ryan 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Undecided 18%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Fox News

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 329

October 28–30, 2014 Mike Huckabee
13% 		Ben Carson
12% 		Paul Ryan
9% 		Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Santorum 6%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rob Portman 0%, Other 1%, None of the above 4%, Don't know 10%
Reuters/Ipsos

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 602

October 23–29, 2014 Mitt Romney
17% 		Paul Ryan
13% 		Chris Christie
12% 		Jeb Bush 10%, Scott Walker 10%, Rand Paul 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Wouldn't vote 7%
Selzer & Co.

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 425

October 1–7, 2014 Mitt Romney
17% 		Ben Carson
11% 		Rand Paul
10% 		Mike Huckabee 9%, Paul Ryan 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Perry 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Jeb Bush 4%, Scott Walker 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Marco Rubio 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Rob Portman 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Not sure 9%
CNN/ORC

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 310

September 8–10, 2014 Mike Huckabee
21% 		Paul Ryan
12% 		Rand Paul
7% 		Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Rick Santorum 3%
Suffolk University Archived September 3, 2014, at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 6.83%
Sample size: 206

August 23–26, 2014 Mike Huckabee
13.11% 		Chris Christie
10.68% 		Rick Perry
8.74% 		Jeb Bush 7.28%, Rand Paul 6.8%, Paul Ryan 6.31%, Rick Santorum 5.83%, Marco Rubio 5.34%, Ted Cruz 4.85%, Scott Walker 4.37%, Bobby Jindal 2.91%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 0.97%, John Kasich 0.97%, Other 4.37%, Undecided 16.99%, Refused 0.49%
Mitt Romney
35.29% 		Mike Huckabee
8.82% 		Chris Christie
6.47% 		Rick Santorum 5.88%, Ted Cruz 5.29%, Rand Paul 5.29%, Jeb Bush 4.71, Rick Perry 4.71%, Paul Ryan 4.12%, Scott Walker 3.53%, Marco Rubio 2.35%, Bobby Jindal 1.76%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.18%, John Kasich 0.59%, Undecided 10%
NBC News/Marist

Margin of error: ± 4.1%
Sample size: 558

July 7–13, 2014 Jeb Bush
12% 		Rand Paul
12% 		Paul Ryan
11% 		Rick Santorum 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Perry 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Scott Walker 5%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Undecided 20%
Vox Populi Polling

Margin of error: ± 6.6%
Sample size: 222

June 4–5, 2014 Jeb Bush
18% 		Mike Huckabee
15% 		Paul Ryan
13% 		Rand Paul 12%, Marco Rubio 11%, Rick Santorum 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Scott Walker 6%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 303

May 15–19, 2014 Mike Huckabee
20% 		Ted Cruz
15% 		Jeb Bush
12% 		Rand Paul 10%, Chris Christie 9%, Paul Ryan 8%, Scott Walker 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Someone else/Not sure 13%
The Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling Archived 2015-09-24 at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 8.4%
Sample size: 168

April 22–24, 2014 Mike Huckabee
20% 		Paul Ryan
19% 		Jeb Bush
18% 		Ted Cruz 9%, Marco Rubio 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Scott Walker 6%, Joe Scarborough 4%
Magellan Strategies

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 330

April 14–15, 2014 Jeb Bush
17% 		Mike Huckabee
17% 		Chris Christie
14% 		Rand Paul 11%, Ted Cruz 10%, Scott Walker 8%, John Kasich 5%, Marco Rubio 2%, Undecided 16%
Loras College

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 600

April 7–8, 2014 Mike Huckabee
14.7% 		Jeb Bush
10.7% 		Rand Paul
8.5% 		Paul Ryan 8.3%, Chris Christie 8%, Ted Cruz 6.2%, Marco Rubio 4.7%, Rick Santorum 4.7%, Scott Walker 4.7%, Rick Perry 3%, John Kasich 0.7%, Other 0.7%, Undecided 23.8%
Suffolk University Archived 2018-11-09 at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 8.7%
Sample size: 127

April 3–8, 2014 Mike Huckabee
11.02% 		Jeb Bush
10.24% 		Rand Paul
10.24% 		Ted Cruz 9.45%, Ben Carson 8.66%, Chris Christie 7.09%, Paul Ryan 6.3%, Sarah Palin 5.51%, Condoleezza Rice 5.51%, Marco Rubio 5.51%, Rick Santorum 5.51%, Scott Walker 5.51%, Bobby Jindal 3.15%, Rick Perry 3.15%, Undecided 3.15%
WPA Research

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 402

March 30, 2014 Mike Huckabee
14% 		Rand Paul
10% 		Scott Walker
8% 		Jeb Bush 7%, Ted Cruz 7%, Paul Ryan 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Rick Perry 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Other 2%, Undecided 26%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.8%
Sample size: 283

February 20–23, 2014 Mike Huckabee
17% 		Rand Paul
14% 		Jeb Bush
13% 		Chris Christie 10%, Ted Cruz 10%, Paul Ryan 9%, Bobby Jindal 7%, Scott Walker 7%, Marco Rubio 3%, Other/Undecided 11%
Polls in 2013-2012
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Cygnal

Margin of error: ± 2.37%
Sample size: 1,705

July 10–12, 2013 Marco Rubio
11.4% 		Rand Paul
10.5% 		Paul Ryan
9.3% 		Jeb Bush 8.7%, Chris Christie 7.7%, Rick Santorum 6.7%, Ted Cruz 6.1%, Scott Walker 2.1%, Bobby Jindal 1.3%, Undecided 36.3%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 250

July 5–7, 2013 Rand Paul
18% 		Chris Christie
16% 		Paul Ryan
15% 		Jeb Bush 14%, Marco Rubio 11%, Ted Cruz 10%, Rick Santorum 6%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Susana Martinez 1%, Other/Undecided 7%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.4%
Sample size: 326

Feb. 1–3, 2013 Mike Huckabee
16% 		Marco Rubio
16% 		Rand Paul
15% 		Jeb Bush 14%, Chris Christie 12%, Paul Ryan 10%, Susana Martinez 4%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Someone Else/Undecided 7%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: 5.1%
Sample size: 363

July 12–15, 2012 Rick Santorum
17% 		Mike Huckabee
17% 		Chris Christie
16% 		Rand Paul 11%, Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 8%, Paul Ryan 6%, Sarah Palin 4%, Scott Walker 4%, Someone else/Not sure 8%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: 5.3%
Sample size: 346

May 3–5, 2012 Rick Santorum
16% 		Mike Huckabee
16% 		Chris Christie
15% 		Jeb Bush 10%, Sarah Palin 10%, Rand Paul 9%, Marco Rubio 7%, Paul Ryan 5% Someone else/Not sure 10%

Results

[edit]
Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, February 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 51,666 27.64% 8 0 8
Donald Trump 45,427 24.3% 7 0 7
Marco Rubio 43,165 23.12% 7 0 7
Ben Carson 17,395 9.3% 3 0 3
Rand Paul 8,481 4.54% 1 0 1
Jeb Bush 5,238 2.8% 1 0 1
Carly Fiorina 3,485 1.86% 1 0 1
John Kasich 3,474 1.86% 1 0 1
Mike Huckabee 3,345 1.79% 1 0 1
Chris Christie 3,284 1.76% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum 1,783 0.95% 0 0 0
Other 117 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore 12 0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 186,932 100.00% 30 0 30
Source: "Iowa". cnn.com. Retrieved November 23, 2016.

Results by County

[edit]
2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucuses (By County)[104]
County Ted Cruz Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ben Carson Rand Paul Jeb Bush Carly Fiorina John Kasich Mike Huckabee All Other Candidates[a] Total
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Adair 104 25.55% 104 25.55% 80 19.66% 61 14.99% 12 2.95% 4 0.98% 16 3.93% 2 0.49% 11 2.70% 13 3.20% 407
Adams 81 29.67% 68 24.91% 47 17.22% 30 10.99% 8 2.93% 7 2.56% 16 5.86% 10 3.66% 3 1.10% 3 1.10% 273
Allamakee 183 26.64% 193 28.09% 131 19.07% 77 11.21% 16 2.33% 11 1.60% 54 7.86% 2 0.29% 9 1.31% 11 1.60% 687
Appanoose 269 32.02% 292 34.76% 90 10.71% 92 10.95% 20 2.38% 13 1.55% 9 1.07% 4 0.48% 44 5.24% 7 0.84% 840
Audubon 135 36.10% 99 26.47% 56 14.97% 33 8.82% 11 2.94% 10 2.67% 4 1.07% 5 1.34% 20 5.35% 1 0.27% 374
Benton 596 36.45% 410 25.08% 246 15.05% 171 10.46% 72 4.40% 11 0.67% 35 2.14% 27 1.65% 34 2.08% 33 2.02% 1,635
Black Hawk 1,585 26.82% 1,360 23.01% 1,551 26.24% 497 8.41% 357 6.04% 178 3.01% 131 2.22% 53 0.90% 72 1.22% 126 2.13% 5,910
Boone 566 32.20% 412 23.44% 320 18.20% 177 10.07% 96 5.46% 31 1.76% 7 0.40% 22 1.25% 67 3.81% 60 3.42% 1,758
Bremer 408 27.38% 347 23.29% 389 26.11% 134 8.99% 46 3.09% 38 2.55% 24 1.61% 50 3.36% 19 1.28% 35 2.35% 1,490
Buchanan 308 36.80% 217 25.93% 110 13.14% 82 9.80% 35 4.18% 14 1.67% 31 3.70% 6 0.72% 15 1.79% 19 2.27% 837
Buena Vista 309 30.62% 251 24.88% 221 21.90% 97 9.61% 26 2.58% 23 2.28% 20 1.98% 15 0.49% 18 1.78% 29 2.87% 1,009
Butler 332 36.48% 220 24.18% 145 15.93% 108 11.87% 32 3.52% 24 2.64% 18 1.98% 3 0.33% 21 2.31% 7 0.77% 910
Calhoun 159 28.55% 136 24.42% 121 21.72% 37 6.64% 20 3.59% 10 1.80% 8 1.44% 7 1.26% 35 6.28% 24 4.31% 557
Carroll 256 24.95% 298 29.04% 230 22.42% 69 6.73% 31 3.02% 60 5.85% 44 4.29% 14 1.36% 11 1.07% 13 1.27% 1,026
Cass 225 24.35% 262 28.35% 176 19.05% 142 15.37% 9 0.97% 34 3.68% 10 1.08% 21 2.27% 17 1.84% 28 3.03% 924
Cedar 310 28.97% 281 26.26% 240 22.43% 100 9.35% 43 4.02% 17 1.59% 19 1.78% 26 2.43% 13 1.21% 21 1.96% 1,070
Cerro Gordo 655 28.17% 597 25.68% 446 19.18% 184 7.91% 78 3.35% 119 5.12% 42 1.81% 29 1.25% 39 1.68% 136 5.84% 2,325
Cherokee 157 18.71% 248 29.56% 243 28.96% 119 14.18% 12 1.43% 16 1.91% 11 1.31% 5 0.60% 17 2.03% 11 1.32% 839
Chickasaw 161 26.79% 166 27.62% 143 23.79% 57 9.48% 18 3.00% 11 1.83% 27 4.49% 3 0.50% 6 1.00% 9 1.50% 601
Clarke 155 27.83% 202 36.27% 88 15.80% 56 10.05% 15 2.69% 12 2.15% 9 1.62% 3 0.54% 8 1.44% 9 1.62% 557
Clay 291 28.39% 292 28.49% 149 14.54% 155 15.12% 28 2.73% 16 1.56% 8 0.78% 31 3.02% 25 2.44% 30 2.93% 1,025
Clayton 298 35.22% 249 29.43% 109 12.88% 67 7.92% 29 3.43% 26 3.07% 26 3.07% 11 1.30% 17 2.01% 14 1.65% 846
Clinton 621 26.93% 709 30.75% 459 19.90% 159 6.90% 94 4.08% 106 4.60% 70 3.04% 41 1.78% 15 0.65% 32 1.39% 2,306
Crawford 226 32.33% 214 30.62% 114 16.31% 63 9.01% 12 1.72% 12 1.72% 24 3.43% 8 1.14% 7 1.00% 19 2.72% 699
Dallas 1,691 23.22% 1,510 20.74% 2,469 33.91% 489 6.72% 276 3.79% 213 2.93% 133 1.83% 167 2.29% 61 0.84% 273 2.75% 7,282
Davis 168 31.64% 205 38.61% 37 6.97% 38 7.16% 25 4.71% 10 1.88% 1 0.19% 1 0.19% 38 7.16% 8 1.51% 531
Decatur 173 34.81% 127 25.55% 73 14.69% 80 16.10% 19 3.82% 5 1.01% 2 0.40% 4 0.80% 6 1.21% 8 1.60% 497
Delaware 317 35.46% 198 22.15% 172 19.24% 92 10.29% 27 3.02% 19 2.13% 52 5.82% 2 0.22% 7 0.78% 8 0.90% 894
Des Moines 613 28.30% 659 30.42% 451 20.82% 212 9.79% 99 4.57% 19 0.88% 17 0.78% 20 0.92% 31 1.43% 45 2.08% 2,166
Dickinson 260 21.63% 342 28.45% 286 23.79% 159 13.23% 34 2.83% 46 3.83% 12 1.00% 27 2.25% 15 1.75% 21 1.25% 1,202
Dubuque 824 20.73% 1,087 27.35% 1,060 26.67% 384 9.66% 230 5.79% 95 2.39% 97 2.44% 54 1.36% 48 1.21% 96 2.42% 3,975
Emmet 143 35.48% 122 30.27% 46 11.41% 49 12.16% 11 2.73% 4 0.99% 8 1.99% 4 0.99% 10 2.48% 6 1.49% 403
Fayette 341 34.10% 240 24.10% 180 18.00% 144 14.40% 27 2.70% 18 1.80% 18 1.80% 6 0.60% 17 1.70% 9 0.90% 1,000
Floyd 305 40.13% 200 26.32% 105 13.82% 83 10.92% 10 1.32% 23 3.03% 8 1.05% 9 1.18% 8 1.05% 9 1.18% 761
Franklin 225 35.83% 159 25.32% 105 16.72% 62 9.87% 23 3.66% 18 1.98% 5 0.80% 4 0.64% 23 3.66% 4 0.64% 628
Fremont 87 20.42% 182 42.72% 77 18.08% 40 9.39% 11 2.58% 10 2.35% 0 0.00% 6 1.41% 2 0.47% 11 2.58% 426
Greene 162 29.67% 164 30.04% 77 14.10% 62 11.36% 14 2.56% 25 4.58% 2 0.37% 6 1.10% 14 2.56% 20 3.66% 546
Grundy 272 28.75% 198 20.93% 261 27.59% 73 7.72% 32 3.38% 26 2.75% 10 1.27% 4 0.42% 50 5.29% 20 2.12% 946
Guthrie 218 28.91% 208 27.59% 118 15.65% 107 14.19% 28 3.71% 16 2.12% 18 2.39% 2 0.27% 23 3.05% 16 2.12% 754
Hamilton 277 28.94% 269 28.11% 159 16.61% 89 9.30% 48 5.02% 13 1.36% 14 1.46% 20 2.09% 25 2.61% 43 4.39% 957
Hancock 385 45.35% 360 18.85% 132 15.55% 71 8.36% 21 2.47% 22 2.59% 19 2.24% 6 0.71% 16 1.88% 17 2.00% 1,049
Hardin 417 32.83% 295 23.23% 225 17.72% 138 10.87% 45 3.54% 19 1.50% 25 1.97% 12 0.94% 31 2.44% 63 4.96% 1,270
Harrison 282 27.67% 315 30.91% 112 10.99% 221 21.69% 17 1.67% 5 0.49% 24 2.36% 10 0.98% 10 0.98% 23 2.26% 1,019
Henry 379 31.27% 273 22.52% 228 18.81% 189 15.59% 30 2.48% 31 2.56% 18 1.49% 12 0.99% 33 2.72% 19 1.57% 1,212
Howard 106 28.88% 112 30.52% 89 24.25% 26 7.08% 5 1.36% 19 5.18% 3 0.82% 0 0.00% 5 1.36% 2 0.54% 367
Humboldt 168 27.77% 204 33.72% 111 18.35% 48 7.93% 16 2.64% 14 2.31% 6 0.99% 3 0.50% 17 2.81% 18 2.98% 605
Ida 135 25.62% 136 25.81% 135 25.62% 43 8.16% 7 1.33% 8 1.52% 32 6.07% 3 0.57% 8 1.52% 20 3.74% 527
Iowa 353 34.17% 249 24.10% 163 15.78% 105 10.16% 56 5.42% 11 1.06% 25 2.42% 14 1.36% 33 3.19% 24 2.32% 1,033
Jackson 265 28.49% 306 32.90% 169 18.17% 64 6.88% 34 3.66% 26 2.80% 21 2.26% 11 1.18% 9 0.97% 25 2.70% 930
Jasper 812 34.94% 583 25.09% 417 17.94% 207 8.91% 100 4.30% 46 1.98% 31 1.33% 13 0.56% 72 3.10% 43 1.85% 2,324
Jefferson 270 31.69% 223 26.17% 104 12.21% 55 6.46% 67 7.86% 17 2.00% 11 1.29% 25 2.93% 51 5.99% 29 3.40% 852
Johnson 1,413 19.55% 1,394 19.29% 2,207 30.54% 531 7.35% 691 9.56% 229 3.17% 191 2.64% 284 3.93% 75 1.04% 212 2.93% 7,227
Jones 363 35.11% 258 24.95% 167 16.15% 107 10.35% 32 3.09% 25 2.42% 35 3.38% 6 0.58% 6 0.58% 35 3.38% 1,034
Keokuk 216 30.77% 220 31.34% 116 16.52% 63 8.97% 19 2.71% 13 1.85% 11 1.57% 5 0.71% 23 3.28% 16 2.27% 702
Kossuth 285 30.10% 224 23.65% 190 20.06% 150 15.84% 18 1.90% 13 1.37% 4 0.42% 15 1.58% 27 2.85% 21 2.27% 947
Lee 334 25.30% 409 30.98% 249 18.86% 157 11.89% 36 2.73% 19 1.44% 51 3.86% 16 1.21% 26 1.97% 23 1.74% 1,320
Linn 3,422 29.43% 2,344 20.16% 2,825 24.29% 1,072 9.22% 699 6.01% 262 2.25% 302 2.60% 262 2.25% 99 0.85% 341 2.93% 11,628
Louisa 257 35.50% 261 36.05% 76 10.50% 44 6.08% 26 3.59% 14 1.93% 5 0.69% 5 0.69% 31 4.28% 5 0.69% 724
Lucas 213 36.16% 159 26.99% 79 13.41% 68 11.54% 24 4.07% 10 1.70% 9 1.53% 0 0.00% 18 3.06% 9 1.53% 589
Lyon 432 39.02% 173 15.63% 229 20.69% 206 18.61% 14 1.26% 11 0.99% 10 0.90% 6 0.54% 3 0.27% 23 2.08% 1,107
Madison 452 33.51% 373 27.65% 250 18.53% 107 7.93% 51 3.78% 22 1.63% 21 1.56% 11 0.82% 34 2.52% 28 2.07% 1,349
Mahaska 669 34.13% 421 21.48% 368 18.78% 209 10.66% 69 3.52% 40 2.04% 37 1.89% 8 0.41% 49 2.50% 90 4.59% 1,960
Marion 1,011 35.20% 539 18.77% 606 21.10% 272 9.47% 123 4.28% 74 2.58% 41 1.43% 30 1.04% 74 2.58% 102 3.55% 2,872
Marshall 630 27.07% 608 26.13% 502 21.57% 226 9.71% 75 3.22% 61 2.62% 57 2.45% 33 1.42% 50 2.15% 85 3.65% 2,327
Mills 244 21.77% 300 26.76% 265 23.64% 182 16.24% 33 2.94% 10 0.89% 23 2.05% 15 1.34% 7 0.62% 42 3.75% 1,121
Mitchell 114 24.20% 120 25.48% 56 11.89% 61 12.95% 34 7.22% 10 2.12% 55 11.68% 3 0.64% 11 2.34% 7 1.49% 471
Monona 185 36.13% 156 30.47% 94 18.36% 41 8.01% 8 1.56% 2 0.39% 6 1.17% 1 0.20% 9 1.76% 10 1.95% 512
Monroe 195 36.04% 170 31.42% 97 17.93% 25 4.62% 23 4.25% 3 0.55% 4 0.74% 4 0.74% 18 3.33% 2 0.37% 541
Montgomery 133 23.29% 118 20.67% 124 21.72% 85 14.89% 26 4.55% 27 4.73% 27 4.73% 10 1.75% 10 1.75% 11 1.93% 571
Muscatine 576 23.86% 720 29.83% 635 26.30% 110 4.56% 131 5.43% 53 2.20% 43 1.78% 45 1.86% 39 1.62% 62 2.57% 2,414
O'Brien 347 28.47% 256 21.00% 281 23.05% 220 18.05% 19 1.56% 17 1.39% 10 0.82% 6 0.49% 45 3.69% 18 1.48% 1,219
Osceola 113 34.56% 78 23.85% 56 17.13% 42 12.84% 8 2.45% 13 3.98% 7 2.14% 1 0.31% 3 0.92% 6 1.84% 327
Page 249 28.52% 232 26.58% 156 17.87% 157 17.98% 13 1.49% 25 2.86% 8 0.92% 12 1.37% 9 1.03% 12 1.37% 873
Palo Alto 110 25.46% 117 27.08% 94 21.76% 40 9.26% 15 3.47% 14 3.24% 9 2.08% 5 1.16% 17 3.94% 11 2.55% 432
Plymouth 530 28.10% 618 32.77% 373 19.78% 195 10.34% 34 1.80% 44 2.33% 19 1.01% 22 1.17% 14 0.74% 37 1.97% 1,886
Pocahontas 187 38.72% 110 22.77% 65 13.46% 70 14.49% 13 2.69% 9 1.86% 5 1.04% 2 0.41% 16 3.31% 6 1.25% 483
Polk 7,864 25.29% 6,764 21.75% 8,365 26.90% 2,297 7.39% 1,633 5.25% 1,405 4.52% 420 1.35% 773 2.49% 565 1.82% 1,012 3.26% 31,098
Pottawattamie 942 21.54% 1,508 34.48% 750 17.15% 543 12.42% 156 3.57% 70 1.60% 80 1.83% 127 2.90% 25 0.57% 172 3.93% 4,373
Poweshiek 282 28.69% 258 26.25% 183 18.62% 76 7.73% 63 6.41% 38 3.87% 14 1.42% 18 1.83% 30 3.05% 21 2.13% 983
Ringgold 84 25.30% 106 31.93% 50 15.06% 52 15.66% 2 0.60% 16 4.82% 3 0.90% 0 0.00% 14 4.22% 5 1.50% 332
Sac 187 27.95% 212 31.69% 81 12.11% 61 9.12% 17 2.54% 19 2.84% 12 1.79% 7 1.05% 18 2.69% 55 8.22% 669
Scott 2,396 24.58% 2,465 25.28% 2,553 26.19% 532 5.46% 486 4.99% 353 3.62% 219 2.25% 436 4.47% 78 0.80% 231 2.37% 9,749
Shelby 207 27.79% 203 27.25% 129 17.32% 109 14.63% 23 3.09% 9 1.21% 22 2.95% 9 1.21% 18 2.42% 16 3.23% 745
Sioux 1,524 33.17% 502 10.93% 1,469 31.98% 686 14.93% 117 2.55% 76 1.65% 39 0.85% 45 0.98% 35 0.76% 101 2.20% 4,594
Story 1,815 24.09% 1,152 15.29% 2,415 32.05% 641 8.51% 629 8.35% 212 2.81% 117 1.55% 193 2.56% 123 1.63% 237 3.14% 7,534
Tama 307 31.23% 350 35.61% 123 12.51% 83 8.44% 27 2.75% 12 1.22% 10 1.02% 12 1.22% 33 3.36% 26 2.65% 983
Taylor 74 19.58% 140 37.04% 52 13.76% 63 16.67% 10 2.65% 10 2.65% 6 1.59% 6 1.59% 9 2.38% 8 2.11% 378
Union 203 28.92% 194 27.64% 135 19.23% 87 12.39% 10 1.42% 12 1.71% 16 2.28% 7 1.00% 28 3.99% 10 1.42% 702
Van Buren 196 36.77% 151 28.33% 63 11.82% 56 10.51% 7 1.31% 3 0.56% 0 0.00% 1 0.19% 51 9.57% 5 0.94% 533
Wapello 489 29.30% 592 35.47% 242 14.50% 127 7.61% 50 3.00% 24 1.44% 10 0.60% 9 0.54% 103 6.17% 23 1.38% 1,669
Warren 1,120 29.40% 982 25.78% 784 20.58% 374 9.82% 197 5.17% 95 2.49% 37 0.97% 44 1.16% 76 2.00% 100 2.63% 3,809
Washington 542 35.10% 329 21.31% 222 14.38% 194 12.56% 104 6.74% 63 4.08% 30 1.94% 13 0.84% 23 1.49% 24 1.55% 1,544
Wayne 171 40.81% 114 27.21% 57 13.60% 36 8.59% 3 0.72% 9 2.15% 5 1.19% 7 1.67% 15 3.58% 2 0.48% 419
Webster 432 26.65% 435 26.84% 286 17.64% 120 7.40% 62 3.82% 44 2.71% 17 1.05% 28 1.73% 76 4.69% 121 7.46% 1,621
Winnebago 187 30.31% 115 18.64% 128 20.75% 91 14.75% 22 3.57% 24 3.89% 7 1.13% 2 0.32% 27 4.38% 14 2.27% 617
Winneshiek 251 24.04% 274 26.25% 208 19.92% 151 14.46% 40 3.83% 26 2.49% 27 2.59% 30 2.87% 23 2.20% 14 1.34% 1,044
Woodbury 1,367 27.04% 1,600 31.65% 1,065 21.07% 394 7.79% 141 2.79% 85 1.68% 114 2.26% 44 0.87% 23 0.45% 222 4.39% 5,055
Worth 115 30.67% 113 30.13% 55 14.67% 25 6.67% 14 3.73% 9 2.40% 11 2.93% 5 1.33% 18 4.80% 10 2.67% 375
Wright 190 33.81% 129 22.95% 124 22.06% 58 10.32% 7 1.25% 16 2.85% 4 0.71% 6 1.07% 15 2.67% 13 2.31% 562
Totals 51,666 27.64% 45,429 24.30% 43,228 23.13% 17,394 9.31% 8,481 4.54% 5,238 2.80% 3,485 1.86% 3,474 1.86% 3,345 1.79% 5,192 2.78% 186,932
Results of the Iowa Republican caucus, 2016
  Cruz—40-50%
  Cruz—30-40%
  Cruz—20-30%
  Tied between Cruz and Trump
  Trump—20-30%
  Trump—30-40%
  Trump—40-50%
  Rubio—20-30%
  Rubio—30-40%

Aftermath and Controversy

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The caucus results led to immediate controversy when Ben Carson accused Cruz's campaign of employing dishonest tactics, specifically claiming that Cruz supporters falsely told caucus-goers that Carson had dropped out to convince them to switch their votes.[105]

Trump subsequently accused Cruz of "stealing" the Iowa caucuses through fraud, taking to social media to demand that Cruz be disqualified and the election results invalidated.[106] These accusations foreshadowed continued tensions between Cruz and Trump as the primary campaign progressed.

The results also had an immediate impact on the Republican field, as Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum suspended their campaigns in the days following the caucuses.[107][108]

Geographic and Demographic Analysis

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Exit polling revealed Cruz's victory was built on strong support from evangelical voters, who comprised 62% of caucus participants. He won 33% of evangelical voters, while also performing strongly in rural counties and areas with high evangelical populations.[109]

Trump's support was notably stronger in eastern Iowa and working-class areas, particularly along the Mississippi River. He performed best among first-time caucus participants and voters without college degrees. Rubio showed particular strength in suburban areas around Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and other population centers, winning 28% of college graduates and performing well among late-deciding voters.

2016 Iowa Republican Caucuses by demographic subgroup (Edison entrance polling)[110]
Demographic subgroup Cruz Trump Rubio Carson % of

total vote

Total vote 27.6 24.3 23.1 9.3 90%
Gender
Men 29 25 25 8 52%
Women 27 24 21 11 48%
Race/ethnicity
White 28 24 23 9 97%
Age
17–29 years old 27 19 24 10 12%
30–44 years old 31 22 22 6 16%
45–64 years old 28 25 24 10 46%
65+ years old 27 26 22 10 27%
Education
College Graduate 25 21 28 9 51%
Non-college 31 28 17 9 49%
Issue regarded as most important
Immigration 34 44 10 7 13%
Economy 18 24 30 9 27%
Terrorism 33 21 26 8 25%
Government spending 27 19 21 11 32%
Area type
Urban 24 23 28 7 20%
Suburban 28 22 25 7 36%
Rural 29 27 18 12 44%
Religion
Evangelical 33 21 21 12 62%
Non-Evangelical 19 29 26 5 38%

See also

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Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Consists of the vote totals for all candidates that did not receive delegates, which are: Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Jim Gilmore, and any other write-ins or candidates.

References

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